The project aims at the development of a comprehensive model to describe, analyse and predict the influence of various factors ( residential energy consumption, individual transport, purchased goods and their production ), describing household and industrial impact on total airborne emissions.
With a methodology drawing upon elements of household production theory, input-ouput analysis and system dynamics the influence of household size, income and other socio-demographic factors on total emissions are determined for France, the Netherlands and Germany. The work includes the following elements :
i) income elasticities and the influence of other factors are determined in a cross-sectional analysis, changes in preference structure as well as changes in household and industrial production technologies are established ;
ii) in an ex post analysis by means of factor decomposition effects are attributed to factors such as income, household size, preferences and other socio-demographic variables on one hand and household technologies, climate, production structure and production technologies on the other hand ;
iii) Total emissions of households (derived by residential energy consumption, individual transport, and purchased goods) are also be subject to factor analysis, yielding the independent behavioural components influencing total emissions. Through cluster analysis emission lifestyles are also identified. International and intertemporal comparison of these lifestyles provides information on the stability of behaviour-environment links ;
iv) ex-ante projections are performed using the established relationships. The trend scenario consists of an extrapolation of the development of key variables like income growth, household size distribution, production linkages, energy use and emission factors. In the other scenarios various changes and policy measures, for example in average household and dwelling size, levels of immigration, in household income , income distribution, production structure and the impact of technological changes and fuel switches, are investigated.
Particular interest is devoted to the combined effects of these phenomena, e.g; the impact of growth of households income and simultaneous increase in car efficiency on CO2 emissions related to transport.
Funding SchemeCSC - Cost-sharing contracts
1755 ZG Petten