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Towards pratical, real-time estimation of spatial aftershock probabilities: a feasibility study in earthquake hazard

Objective

Problems to be solved
While it is now widely accepted that the goal of deterministic earthquake prediction will not be attainable in the short or medium time, this does not preclude the estimation of seismic hazard and how it might vary in space and time. Recent advances in the modelling of stress perturbations as the result of a large earthquake account for the spatial distribution of aftershocks in terms of triggering by the mainshock.
Scientific objectives and approach
This project aims to assess the possibility of using these modelling techniques in a particular context on two fronts so that they might be used in the hours to tens of days following an earthquake to assist in seismic crisis management. Firstly, the project will examine in detail the scientific feasibility of the technique in terms of its ability to forward model the aftershock sequences of several recorded and synthetic earthquakes and secondly it will test the ability to use this forward modelling in a practically useful way. Expected Impacts This project has the potential to significantly contribute to a major advance in earthquake hazard mitigation, predicting risk hazards in near real-time. This tool would provide a firm basis for civil protection agencies to make decisions that directly affect health (e.g. when to allow people to return to their homes following an earthquake).

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

UNIVERSITY OF ULSTER
Address
Cromore Road
BT52 1SA Coleraine
United Kingdom

Participants (5)

CHARLES UNIVERSITY PRAGUE
Czechia
Address
5,Ovocny Trh 5
116 36 Praha 1
EARTHQUAKE PLANNING & PROTECTION ORGANIZATION
Greece
Address
32,Xanthou Street 32
154 51 Athens
INSTITUT DE PHYSIQUE DU GLOBE DE PARIS
France
Address
Place Jussieu 4, Tour 14-24, 2Eme Etage
Paris
NATIONAL OBSERVATORY OF ATHENS
Greece
Address
Lofos Nymfon
11810 Athens
NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF IRELAND, DUBLIN
Ireland
Address
Belfield
Dublin