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The sustainability of european irrigated agriculture under water directive and agenda 2000 (WADI)


This document, deals with detailed definitions of possible future agricultural policy scenarios in Europe for the purpose of modelling the impact of policy change on the irrigation sector. The study: - Presents the key assumptions and narratives that describe the various future scenarios; - Contains estimates for values of key input parameters to be used in the modelling of future scenarios for the WADI project. Before using these assumptions, narratives and estimates of parameter values, they must be adapted to suit country and regional circumstances. In this way there will be consistency in the modelling approach of possible futures. It is recognised however that country/regional circumstances will differ in the detail of the possible impact on the values of parameters (eg prices) of scenarios, which have an important local dimension.
Univ. Cordoba: Models of the 14 farm-types have been run according to the agreed scenarios adapted to South Spanish situation. We show all result of models previously elaborated. Univ. Valladolid: Models of the 22 farm-types have been run according to the agreed scenarios adapted to Spanish situation. The analysis carried out yields two main kinds of results: a diagnosis of the sustainability of the various farming systems facing different scenarios and related policy implications for CAP and WFD. The research shows the need for a close co-ordination between both policies in order to avoid major damages in irrigated areas. Univ. Bologna: Models of the 11 case studies have been run according to the agreed scenarios adapted to Italian situation. The analysis carried out yields two main kinds of results: a diagnosis of the sustainability of the various farming systems facing different scenarios and related policy implications for CAP and WFD. The research shows that water pricing can improve irrigation efficiency, but the impact of water policy is strongly affected by agricultural policy scenarios. In order to make water policies more socially sound, it is necessary to consider a broader range of impacts and to provide a higher co-ordination between policy goals. Univ. Thessaloniki: For the Greek case study we could use only one of the dynamic models presented in D9 or a compromised model as we decided in Bologna workshop, i.e. a model similar to model 2 that would be also used for agricultural policy scenarios. We selected and applied the second model in 5 cases for all clusters in the irrigated areas. The first case was Agenda 2000 (Status Quo) and the other cases the four Agricultural Policy Scenarios - World Markets. - Global Sustainability. - Provincial enterprise. - Local Stewardship. Extending the model in a long-term level we led to certain useful conclusions for the policy makers. The results showed that for all the irrigated regions the increase of water price would also have similar impacts with those that it had also in the status quo scenario. The reduction of water consumption will be accompanied by a simultaneous reduction of employment and farm income. Univ. Cranfield: Changes in agricultural and water policy appear to have a limited impact on irrigation in E&W. This is because most irrigated crops lie outside the direct remit of existing agricultural policy. It seems likely that the irrigation of potatoes and vegetables in E&W would remain viable under alternative water pricing and regulatory regimes, including those associated with the WFD. The irrigation of sugar beet, which presently accounts for 7% and 3% of the irrigated area and volume of water applied respectively, is vulnerable to policy change. In most circumstances, the irrigation of cereals and grass is not financially viable. Univ. Evora: The main objective of this research is to quantify the economic, social and environmental impacts of implementing the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) in the main irrigated regions of Portugal (Baixo Alentejo, Leziria do Tejo and Baixo Mondego) under the present situation (Agenda 2000) and future possible CAP policies. For the purpose of modelling the impact of policy change in the irrigated agriculture sub-sector, evolution scenarios are analysed. Four future scenarios are considered to model different directions of CAP policies: World Markets, Global Sustainability, Provincial Enterprise and Local Stewardship. Results of each typology are grouped in three main areas considering their economic, social and environmental nature. The economic dimension estimates the farm income and level of direct subsidies. The social dimension respects to the amount of agricultural employment necessary. The environmental dimension computes the level of nitrogen fertilizers and pesticide use as well as the amount of water use. These indicators are simulated from zero to forty nine cents of Euro per cubic meter of water, for each typology in each scenario.
Univ. Cordoba and Valladolid: Water pricing is a rather useful economic instrument to reduce consumption, increase costs recovery and decrease non-point source pollution in extensive and low profitable irrigated areas. Nevertheless, the implementation this instrument would involve very negative impacts on farmers' incomes and employment generated by this economic sector. CAP is a more relevant policy in order to achieve every policy-makers' objectives in this kind of irrigated areas. Univ. Thessaloniki: In Greek case we selected 3 areas, which represent different but similar production plans. The differences are: - Each region presents 1-2 more or less crops than the other region; - The percentage distribution of crops in each region; - The most important crops of each region. From the relevant survey has resulted that farmers use many combinations of irrigation technology and irrigation methods to irrigate their crops but there is no connection between irrigation technology or method and selected irrigation area. The results of the analysis by cluster techniques, was the definition for each of the irrigation areas analysed three farm types dependent on the farm size. We concluded that the differences in water demand observed in the three water areas can be explained by structural parameters (crop plans, irrigation methods farm size etc.). We also observed that in all irrigated areas water demand is inelastic for low prices and does not become price responsive until higher prices are attained. In all regions farmers respond to the new water policies with a modification of their farming strategies by growing less water demanding crops, substituting dry crops for previously irrigated crops and in some areas by adopting crops that irrigated by new irrigation technologies (i.e. drips irrigation, new water management practices or cropping techniques). As regard the impact on the farm income, we observed that in all irrigated regions we had important reduction of farm income. This limitation has different results in the case of employment. From the environmental point of view there will be a reduction in fertilizer use. Univ. Cranfield: Irrigated agriculture in E&W appears reasonably robust under most of the scenarios. Much depends however on consumer demand and willingness to pay for high quality produce, and this varies under future scenarios. This factor, associated with 'supermarket' trade, has been the main driver for irrigation in recent years. Except for sugar beet, which is dominant in the Midland region, most farmers appear able to absorb likely increases in water prices associated with the WFD, including where appropriate the cost of winter storage. The eastern Anglian region will remain the dominant irrigated area, with a focus on potatoes and vegetables. Univ. Evora: This deliverable summarises the main features of agriculture and irrigated agriculture in the Portuguese conditions; describes selected study region and characterizes some typologies within these regions; and explains the methodology used in this study. Later on the impacts of policy change, namely concerning prospective future scenarios and the impact caused by WFD implementation via a volumetric tariff are presented at a regional level. In economic terms, the summation of the farm income with the amounts spent with water consumption are always lower then the farm income at free water levels. There is a loss of receipts. To add to these lost benefits, one should consider the diminishment of agricultural areas in fixating population. This is eventually the biggest drama that this environmentally sustainable promoting policy may imply in the fields of social and economic sustainability. In environmental grounds it should be highlighted the reduction in water demand, and its best allocation among alternative activities, that this policy measure aims to reach. Second, in variable degree and depending on the typology considered, the water price increase is conducive to the use of lower levels of inputs such as nitrogen fertilisers and pesticides, therefore with less environmentally damaging potential. To conclude the report, some policy recommendations are drawn, emphasising the need of further studies on alternative water pricing and regulation possibilities.
This report gives a general description of how EU water legislation is concerning agriculture. More specifically it focuses on the water use by irrigation. Guidelines are given on how to make scenarios for the impact water policy is likely to have in a near future on irrigated agriculture. Although EU legislation is the same for all Member States, it is transposed differently into Member States national law. A long record of struggles between the European Commission (in the name of European Union) and the respective Member States at the European Court of Justice, witnesses the huge amount of problems ex-perienced throughout the implementation of EU Water Policy. A major change of European Water Policy recently occurred. The new Water Frame-work Directive will provoke changes European water management especially con-cerning co-operation, transparency and participation are new policy styles in water management of most EU Member States. The new concept of Water Framework Directive leaves much responsibility to the Member States. Therefore, it will depend much on national decision making processes whether the possibilities that Water Framework Directive bears, will be exploited to the aim to achieve a sustainable water management. Participative mechanisms therefore are important to be set in place. Water policy interacts with a wide range of driving forces. Main driving forces relevant for irrigated agriculture will stay in the centre of the scenarios described in this report. Sustainable water management refers to the threefold concept of sustainability, considering environmental, economic and social performance of the management system ap-plied. Besides water quality the environmental performance need to consider the impact abstraction and release of used water has on the environment and on other activities users of the resource. The economic dimension of sustainable water management refers to the economic activities dependent on the availability of water resources, including water pricing, full cost recovery and liberalisation of the water market. The social as-pects refer to the right to water and equal access to water. Besides water policy other trans-sectoral policies have an indirect but severe influence on irrigation activities in agriculture (i.e. Regional Policy, Liberalisation, Agriculture, and Industry). Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has an impact on agricultural pollution and use of water. Concerning water management, diffuse pollution by Nitrates and Pesti-cides, deriving mainly from agricultural activities, is tackled by European legislation. The latest developments in European Agricultural Policy aim at paying financial compensa-tion for additional environmental services to farmers. They include agri-environmental measures in order to reduce the agricultural impact on the environment. Water users have to be seen as competitors (i.e. agriculture, industries and domestic use) in the exploitation of the limited water resources. Management needs to find fair solutions for the allocation of the resource to the users. Therefore, effective water policy needs to be based on a configuration of actors that makes possible the involvement of all actors into the decision making process. Further, new water policy requests transparent and participative policy style in implementation of water legislation and the respective policy. This report provides a guideline for the development and characterisation of scenarios on water management in general and in particular regarding its use in agricultural irriga-tion. The scenarios are based on the hypothesis that irrigation is influenced by EU water policy. It is presumed that driving forces will modify and influence the implementation of water policy and provoke changes in irrigated agriculture. The suggested methodology is based on a policy framework concept. It characterises the impact of driving forces re-ferring to instrumentation, policy style and configuration of actors. This methodology allows to give comparable descriptions of the water resources, their most likely future state after the complete implementation of the Water Framework Di-rective (WFD) and a fictive future state that would occur if national policy would decide on aims and objectives beyond those required by WFD. A storyline is provided for the situation on EU level. The WADI partners will accomplish scenario making for the national situation. To compare the scenarios the policy framework can be illustrated in a two dimensional graph. The resulting “amoebic” pattern illustrates the impact of driving forces on the water resources influenced by national irrigation activities. Final analysis will answer the question "How water resources will be influenced by irrigated agriculture under different water policies?" and will be based on the three scenarios.
The result is represented by a selection of indicators connected to WADI models and their definition. The following issues are mainly addressed: - Indicator selection; - Methods for calculating indicators; - How to feed calculations into MP models; - Data sources. While much work has been done at different levels by national and international bodies and a number of indicators have been proposed as well as general criteria for their identification and measurement, a consistent set of indicators for the specific analysis of water problems does not exist at present. The present work builds in particular on the OECD framework provided through a series of publication developed during the ‘90s (OECD, 1997, 1999, 2001). Other relevant documents related to agriculture and the environment are taken into account. On the basis of the analysis carried out, the following bundle of indicators has been proposed for use in the WADI project. While farm level indicators can be identified with a certain degree of reliability, aggregate indicators need much more scrutiny, as they have to be developed in relation to the modalities of aggregation (territorial scale, combination with bio modelling, etc.). The result identifies indicators at farm level and give a general hint for the identification of suitable territorial level indicators, according to the choices related to model exploitation. A set of indicators is selected in a definitive way, while an additional set is selected as possible further measures of the environmental sustainability of irrigated systems. Selected indicators: - Economic balance: -- Farm income -- Farm contribution to GDP -- Public support - Social impact: -- Farm employment -- Seasonality - Landscape and biodiversity: -- Soil cover -- Genetic diversity - Water use: -- Water use -- Irrigation technology -- Marginal value of water - Nutrients and pollutants: -- Nitrogen balance -- Pesticide risk -- Energy balance Possible additional indicators: - Economic balance: -- Multiplier effect - Social impact: -- Skill; -- Gender. - Landscape and biodiversity: -- Landscape aesthetic quality; -- Biomass. - Water use: -- Water use efficiency (economic). The most obvious indicators are those related to the consumption of water, emissions of nutrients and use of pesticides that are directly related to the pollution of water resources and appear more directly quantifiable at farm level. They are, nevertheless, not obviously subject to aggregation at higher level and their effects on the environment can be evaluated only after some elaboration of prediction models based on diffusion functions. Indicators of economic viability of farming can be used as well in order to assess the possible results of water policies on the economic sustainability of agriculture, namely through farm income. Also, the social dimension of agriculture can be caught, particularly through farm employment and other related indicators. Finally, some landscape or biodiversity indicators can be used in order to assess the environmental sustainability ad acceptability of changes in water use. The last family of indicators is the most difficult to evaluate, as it could require a summary index of a variety of possible measures; also it is difficult to evaluate at farm level. A simple index partially filling this objective is the genetic diversity, based on the number of cultivated crops and livestock. In the OECD framework, indicators are mostly defined as states or trends. Nevertheless, the same measure may often be interpreted in different ways, taking the form of static data (stock data or per year flow data), trend data (different values of indicators over the years and year to year change) or simulated data according to given assumptions (for example simulated by WADI models in relation to different scenarios). The last meaning has be used in the context of WADI. The key innovative feature of the result is the adaptation of indicators, usually aimed at ex post evaluation, to the modelling via Mathematical programming. This helps in using indicators in connection to simulation tools, with a number of future possible applications. The results are represented by a set of documents providing guidelines for the computation of indicators tested on a full range of models during WADI activities. They are particularly suitable to be used on training and policy evaluation, with little commercial opportunities, but with possibly relevant social impacts. In fact, they are being proposed within new research projects on related issues. Expected benefits will also concern the comparability of the results of modelling activities across different studies and countries. The dissemination will be provided through the diffusion of WADI results, via publications and seminars.
The influence of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the irrigation sector varies considerably between EU member states according to the type of crops irrigated and the degree to which they receive price support. For example the irrigation of cereals, sugar beet, olives, and cotton is particularly sensitive to CAP support, whereas crops such as fruit and vegetables are less directly affected by CAP. The study reviewed policy change evident in Agenda 2000 CAP Reform, especially regarding the trend towards international prices, reduced subsidies, and the decoupling of producer prices and farm incomes support. Furthermore, initiatives to promote sustainable agriculture were interpreted for the irrigation sector.
Univ. Cordoba: A Multiperiod model based upon a Multicriteria objective function is developed in a representative area of the Guadalquivir Valley, dividing the irrigated area into homogeneous types of farming as identified by cluster analysis. The model is applied to different future scenarios with a time horizon of 10 years and different farming environments. A set of eight sustainability indicators is evaluated for the model. The results show that the evolution of crops over time is closely related to the political environment regarding the Common Agricultural Policy and the application of the Water Framework Directive. Methodological innovation has been successfully simultaneous introduction of MCDM and multiperiod programming techniques applied to agriculture and scenario development. Univ. Valladolid: For each farm type we have built a software package based on GAMS in order to allow scenarios analysis. Thus, the models developed have been adapted to the different scenarios, allowing simulations in the long-term. This software package can be used to reproduce the results obtained. Furthermore, these models can be re-fed in order to simulate impacts in other similar irrigated areas. Univ. Bologna: For each case study and for each farm typology we construct a software package based on GAMS. Each model have been calibrated using primary data and validated against actual farmers’ behaviour. The software has also been adapted to scenario analysis in relation to the input from previous results after adaptation to each study area. Univ. Thessaloniki: In order to get the farmers’ behaviour in the long term and test the sustainability of the different farming systems in the selected irrigated areas of Greece we set up two dynamic models. Both are Mathematical Programming MCDM models. The first model (model 1) is used to test the four possible futures as they are expressed by the four Agricultural Policy scenarios of WADI: World Markets, Global Sustainability, Provincial Enterprise and Local Stewardship. The second model (model 2) is used to test the technological progress and improvements that will be happened in irrigated farming in the period of ten years. As it is clear model 1 studies the impacts of price changes due to agricultural policy changes, whereas model 2 studies the impacts of technological progress and improvements in the same time horizon with fixed prices. We adopted the case of the two separated models. In our view, it is better to study separately the impacts of prices and those of technology because: - We receive a better mapping of the impacts of price and technological changes on farmers’ behaviour. - We may propose concrete, simple and clear policies. - We avoid the complicated compromised models. Univ. Cranfield: In the dynamic case, with full cost charging for water services and all farm resources, the average value of irrigation water (over and above irrigation costs excluding water) appears to be about £1.25/m{3} (Eur 1.65/m{3}). Thus in areas where rainfall is a constraint on the ability to achieve reliable quantities of high quality, high value produce, irrigation appears to be an economically valid use of water. Where limits are imposed on summer abstraction farmers can justify investment in winter storage reservoirs, which typically cost Euro 1/m{3} for water applied on the crop. Irrigation water demand is price inelastic at current levels of use, except for sugar beet. With respect to sustainability, irrigated farming provides higher farm incomes and reduced dependency on subsidy per ha relative to rainfed farming. It also provides more employment. In environmental terms, irrigation has a greater environmental impact per ha of cropping than rainfed agriculture, reflecting its relative intensity. The risk of nitrate leaching and pesticide pollution tends to be higher than cereal-based rainfed cropping, but not necessarily higher than similar crops grown under rainfed conditions. Much depends on measures taken to mitigate these risks. Irrigation is more energy intensive but the balance of energy output above input is generally higher. Univ. Evora: The analysis of policy effects followed in this study is performed by using a Multi-Objective mathematical programming model (Multi-Criteria Decision Making Theory) combined with goal-programming techniques. This analysis focuses on the methodological aspects of modelling the impact of policy change on the irrigated agriculture sector. Long-term models are described for each typology, characterizing the most important model components. Decision variables (such as crops), objectives and constraints are presented for each case study. The models were run considering different feasible scenarios to access the implications of Water Framework Directive in each typology.
A CD-ROM entitled 'Survey of current institutional framework for water management in European irrigated systems ' ISBN 84-699-9366-6 was published with the first report by country about European irrigated agriculture. The report makes a summary country by country. The main results for Spain are: Irrigated agriculture supposed more than 3 million of hectares with is 13% of total agricultural area. But this area produces 50% of Final Agricultural Product, implying that irrigated vs. non-irrigated has a ratio of 6:1 by productivity index. Water consumption in Spanish irrigated agriculture was 80% of total water consumption in the country, but last reports by INE (Statistic Bureau) points a share of water around 65% of total resources. Institutions in Spain around water management goes back into Arab traditions, but more recently, Water Law from 1985 has been adapted to new conditions in the New Law 1999. Later, the Water Framework Directive application is the mean issue to resolve by Authorities. The first step in this address is a water management no centralized and in Spain the public administration of water is exercised in the interregional governments basins by the Hydrographic Confederations and in the interregional government basins by the Hydraulic Administration from the Communities of the respective Dictricts.
The WADI project explored the implications of policy change on the irrigation sector in Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy and the UK. The project gives particular consideration to likely impacts of the implementation of the new EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and implications. The WFD (Directive 2000/60/EC) establishes a framework for community action in the field of water policy. Proposals to reform CAP seek to deliver an internationally competitive agricultural sector, which simultaneously supports rural livelihoods and protects the rural environment. Under the existing, and indeed the proposed reformed CAP, European agriculture is not automatically required to meet the criteria for sustainable water resource management incorporated in WFD. Indeed, some aspects of CAP in some EU countries encourage high use of water for irrigation which may not be feasible without the high levels of direct income support and market protection afforded to farmers. It is important, therefore, that CAP and WFD should be integrated to promote a balance between the social, economic and environmental dimensions of agricultural, rural and water resource policy. It is important that the likely impacts of sector-level policy reforms such as CAP and WFD be determined for the European irrigation sector in order to inform the detail of policy design and implementation. This is especially the case where irrigation is a critical component of regional development and prosperity. This document is a contribution to Work Package C of the WADI project. The document considers possible future scenarios for both EU agricultural and water policy. It provides an integration of agricultural and water policy scenarios from a qualitative perspective. Finally, it deals with definition of these scenarios for agriculture in Europe for the purpose of modelling the impact of policy change on the irrigation sector, first, presenting the key assumptions and narratives that describe the various future scenarios and, second, providing estimates for values of key input parameters to be used in modelling of future scenarios for the WADI project.
Univ. Cordoba: We have selected two of the main River Basins, one in the South (Gualdalquivir Valley) and other in the North of the country (Duero Basin). The reason of this decision-making is that Spain has a wide territory and the climatic conditions in the North and the South of the country are different and therefore the crops grown, the dates for seedtime, harvest, etc., are not the same. In both areas are grown most of representative irrigated crops in Spain. As River Basins are very big, we have elected a sample of several smaller irrigated areas inside of both basins: Irrigators Associations. Univ. Valladolid: A case study is the Duero Valley (Northern Spain), as a representative area featured by continental, extensive and low value-added crops. In order define representative farm-types we have selected 7 specific irrigated areas, and within each area we have implemented a cluster technique. Finally we have obtained 22 different farm-types. Univ. Bologna: The objective is to define representative areas intended as agricultural systems not necessarily corresponding to administrative units. Given the availability of data organised according to administrative areas, we use regions as a first proxy for identifying such areas. In a further step, relevant irrigation farming systems are identified more in detail while selecting representative farms. Finally, we have selected 5 farming system: cereals, rice, fruit, vegetables and citrus. Within each area, representative farm typology (11 altogether) has been identified. Univ. Evora: A huge diversity of situations exists in the Portuguese irrigated agriculture. Therefore, the selection of the study areas has been oriented by the search of representative irrigated regions, while seeking to properly capture this diversity. The irrigated agriculture in these areas is further disaggregated and analysed in irrigation sub-sectors, differentiated in what concerns types of crops and farming area. In the case of Baixo Alentejo these sub-sectors consider a Vegetables typology, a General Agriculture typology and an Extensive Farming typology. In the Leziria do Tejo region were only considered to be relevant two typologies. For Baixo Mondego just one typology is sufficient to characterize the main agricultural system of this region. Univ. Thessaloniki: In most regions of Greece no specific connection between geographic region, irrigation technology and type of crop can be drawn and for most crops, all types of irrigation systems can be found. Both groundwater and surface water sources are used and, in some cases, a small proportion of water is drawn from springs. We selected 3 specific irrigated areas of Greece with different irrigation characteristics which represent 3 from the most common agricultural systems. The first belongs to the "Region of Central Macedonia" in Northern Greece, the second to the "Region of Thessalia" in Central Greece and the third to the "Region of East Macedonia and Thrace" in North Eastern Greece. In case of Central Macedonia, we selected an irrigated area belonging to the Prefecture of Pella, which represents a fruit tree cultivation system. Most irrigation in this area is by furrow and sprinklers and is based 48.5% on gravity and 51.5% on pressure. Main crops are cotton, sugar beets and trees (peaches, apples and pears). The irrigated area in Region of Thessalia is in the Prefecture of Larissa, which represents an agricultural system with high productivity. There are arable crops with cotton as basis. In this area farmers use modern irrigation systems such as sprinklers and drips irrigation under pressurized pumped water from the "Pinios" river. Finally, in the region of East Macedonia and Thrace, we selected an irrigated area belonging to the Prefecture of Xanthi, which represents a common agricultural system. In this area main crops are arable crops with tobacco as basis. The most irrigation is by sprinklers and is based on pressure. Univ. Cranfield: A national survey of 2400 irrigators, farmer interviews and discussions with key informants helped define five representative systems, namely: specialist potato farms, potato and vegetable farms, potato and sugar farms, vegetable and horticultural farms, and soft fruit farms. Irrigation is typically part of mixed rainfed and irrigated farming systems. Potatoes alone account for over half the irrigated area and irrigation water in E&W, with vegetable production accounting for about a further 25%. Quality assurance is generally more important than incremental yield. 80% of the irrigated area occurs on 30% of the irrigating farms, showing a tendency towards larger farms.
Univ. Cordoba and Valladolid: For each farm type we have built a static model in order to estimate their own mutiattribute utility function, which farmers try to maximise in any scenario modelled. These functions have been used to simulate differential behaviour of farm-types facing water pricing. Thus, parameterising water price in models we have obtained the decisions taken by farmers and the values of policy makers' attributes. Univ. Bologna: For each case studies and for each farm typology we construct a static model in which the farmer maximizes net income subject to technical, financial and policy constraints. The general methodology has been adapted to the 11 farm models. In all case the models have been designed to consider multiple objectives. Univ. Thessaloniki: Resource allocation in farming (land, labour, water, etc.) implies the simultaneous optimisation of several conflicting criteria, and the simulation of more realistic decision-making processes leads to a closer scenario simulation and consequently to better policy-making procedures. In this study we applied a weighted goal programming model that combines the advantages of Linear Programming (LP), i.e. simplicity and flexibility, with the integrative ability of Multicritreria Decision Making (MCDM) models. Three objectives are regarded in each Irrigation area as belonging to the farmer's decision-making process: - Profit maximisation - Risk minimisation - Minimisation of labour inputs. We estimated a surrogate utility function in order to simulate farmers' decision-making processes. This surrogate utility function is then used to estimate the value of water demand in irrigated crop production, using utility-derived demand functions. Univ. Cranfield: Models were constructed for five irrigation farming systems in order to assess the impact of changes in agricultural and water policy using a set of economic, social and environmental indicators. Particular attention was paid to the impact of changes in agricultural commodity prices, water availability and water prices. The feasibility of strategies adopted by farmers was evaluated, such as changes in cropping systems, investment in alternative in-field application systems and investments in winter storage. The profit motive is the major driver for irrigation, but this is highly correlated with the use of irrigation to reduce the risk of variable quality in high value crops and the use of mechanisation to save high labour costs Univ. Evora: To accomplish this task a methodology based on the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) was used. The analysis of different cluster behaviour was done by optimising farmers' total utility, that is, considering multi-partial additive utilities with intervening objectives as diverse as the farm income maximization and the minimization of risk, operative capital and the amount of labour necessary. These mathematical models are able to reproduce farmers' behavioural patterns and allow forecasting consequences of agricultural and water-pricing policy change. Farmers' behaviour facing policy change is captured for each typology of each region in a pre-Agenda 2000 context. The set of objectives, and the weight in which they participate, is considered to be independent of the policy context and, therefore, can be a good instrument for policy change analysis. For the Agenda 2000 present situation the model used is static short term one.

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