Problems to be solved
EuroSPICE is centred on investigating the impact of the Montreal and Kyoto protocols on the atmosphere. Research on chemistry-climate coupling has suggested that control of both future greenhouse gas emissions and halogen concentrations is necessary to avoid future severe ozone loss. However, the likely level of future ozone depletion is uncertain due to the fact that previous studies have not represented all the known processes. In this project detailed simulations are carried out to help understand past stratospheric trends and to predict future temperature, ozone and surface ultraviolet amounts.
Scientific objectives and approach
The trends in ozone, surface ultraviolet and temperature determined from observations are updated for the period 1980-2000. Trends in these quantities are then simulated using a range of numerical models of the atmosphere, varying from simpler models to very detailed models. These simulations are then extended to the year 2020 with a particular emphasis on the prospect for severe ozone depletion in northern high latitudes and its possible impact on Europe. The results are analysed to determine the likely causes of past stratospheric trends. The results are investigated to understand more clearly the impact of stratospheric change on tropospheric climate and photochemistry.
With improved simulations of past stratospheric changes we have more confidence in the ability of numerical models to predict future changes. These predictions of the future ozone levels have an important impact on the future health and well being of the European citizen because of the connection with surface ultraviolet amounts. Also, the results give improved understanding the atmospheric climate system and in particular whether a detailed stratosphere is necessary for accurate climate simulation.
Funding SchemeCSC - Cost-sharing contracts
1428 Buenos Aires
RG6 6BB Reading / Silchester