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Content archived on 2024-05-21

Predictability and variability of monsoons, and the agricultural and hydrological impacts of climate change


Problems to be solved
Natural year-to-year variability of monsoon climates and future impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including land use changes, have potential very important social and economic consequences for monsoon affected countries. Most of the world population live in monsoon climates and the issue is of global concern.
Scientific objectives and approach
The project addresses the potential for seasonal prediction, and the benefits that would accrue in terms of management of water resources and agriculture. Also it will address the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on these tropical countries, in particular on the availability of water resources for human use, and on the productivity of crops and the potential changes in the natural vegetation. Natural variability of monsoon climates will be investigated on seasonal, interannual to interdecadal time scales using observations and model results. Seasonal predictability will be assessed using ensemble forecasts and origins of predictability will be sought. Specific studies will address the influence of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, in particular ENSO, and the role of land surface conditions and processes in determining predictability. The project exploits existing or planned numerical simulations on seasonal and climate time scales and will undertake process studies through experimentation with global and high-resolution models; with special reference to land surface processes and the impacts of land use changes. Models of crop development/productivity ground hydrology and water balance in large river catchments will be developed and tested with atmospheric reanalyses and model output. The project incorporates a significant programme of collaboration with scientists and users in monsoon-affected countries. The participation of scientists from these countries will be extremely beneficial particularly in the validation of numerical simulations with local observations and the development of transfer models for hydrology and agricultural studies. In order to improve the exchange of results between research institutions in European and extra-European countries and between scientists with expertise in climatology, hydrology and agricultural resources an easily accessible database with selected results from numerical simulations and observational data sets on atmospheric, hydrological and agricultural parameters will be established.
Expected impacts
Substantial progress can be expected towards the development of an integrated approach in which the impacts on agriculture and water resources are properly integrated in the prediction process. Important societal and economic benefits can be expected on the medium term.

Call for proposal

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EU contribution
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Earley Gate 2, Whiteknights
United Kingdom

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Total cost
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Participants (12)