Objective
Problems to be solved
Considerable uncertainties still exist in the magnitude of some of the main forcing factors which causes climatic change. There is a need to better quantify these factors e.g. those due to greenhouse gases, aerosols, and stratospheric ozone and to solar processes.
Scientific objectives and approach
The project aims to estimate the magnitude of temporal changes/variations in external forcing of climate, and to compare both the timing and the magnitude of the detected forcing anomalies with known and hypothesised variations in external forcing. Two different techniques to obtain the forcing will be used and compared, namely temporal changes in 6 and 24 forecast errors, i.e. forecast increments, and temporal changes in initial tendency errors obtained by assimilating the slow atmospheric normal modes obtained from re-analysis into a state-of-the-art climate model. The re-analysis data sets, which will be used, are the ERA15, ERA40 and the GEO-1 and GEO-2 data. The climate model to be used is the ECHAM model. Using re-analysis data, model tendency errors will be analysed to establish real forcing fields and to quantify forcing from processes not included in the model, i. e. stratospheric ozone, volcanic aerosols and desert dust. As a second step an improved ECHAM model, including parametrization of the processes mentioned above, will be used to assimilate the re-analysis data and the results will be used to estimate the performance of the parameterisation schemes and the upgraded model. It is intended also to use this technique in a reverse mode to estimate e.g. concentrations of aerosols from volcanic eruptions. With the estimates of real forcing due to the various processes as far back in time as over the last 40 years the aim is to establish improved (insofar the accuracy of the data permits) estimates of dust/aerosol concentrations during dust/aerosol events. Such estimates are of particular interest for the earlier part of the period, where satellite observations of dust and aerosol loads are not available. In the same way, on a longer time scale, it will be investigated whether effects related to the 11-year sunspot cycle and solar processes of shorter duration and of stratospheric ozone depletion over the period can be quantified. Based on the above the various forcing estimates will be used to isolate the global warming signal from the increase in greenhouse gases (including water vapour), and to quantify to what extent greenhouse forcing has been offset by other forcing or processes during the period.
Expected impacts
The project contributes to detection and attribution of climate change and its causes and its results could have important policy implications a and impacts. The data sets produced and the model development work will contribute to the development of better climate models and climate change scenarios.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- engineering and technology mechanical engineering vehicle engineering aerospace engineering satellite technology
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences environmental sciences ozone depletion
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences atmospheric sciences climatology climatic changes
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Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
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Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Coordinator
2100 KOEPENHAGEN
Denmark
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.