Objective
This proposal for an uncertainty analysis of the EC-code COSYMA consists of two work packages.
Workpackage 1 will provide uncertainty distributions over the two countermeasures modules of COSYMA. The output of these two modules on the endpoints of the code results are subject to two types of uncertainties: either over physical process and consequence parameters, or over practical and political parameters associated with decision makers' policies (the last type is termed volitional uncertainties).
The expert judgement technique currently applied in the EC-project FI3P-CT-92-0023, will be used for the elicitation over parameter variables which are essentially observable or measurable variables.
The technique will be extended for the elicitation of the volitional uncertainties as well as for the elicitation of correlations among uncertainty distributions. Post-processing techniques to transform elicitation variables uncertainty distribution into code parameter uncertainty distribution will be developed. Two separate panels with eight experts each will be set up, one for early countermeasures (i.e. iodine tablets, sheltering, evacuation and skin decontamination) and one on late countermeasures (i.e. relocation, food bans and forced land decontamination).
Workpackage 2 will provide a full scope uncertainty analysis on the COSYMA code, comprising all modules for which parameter uncertainty distributions are derived under EC-project FI3P-CT-92-0023 and under Work Package 1. The uncertainty analysis will be performed on a sub-module by sub-module basis and on the overall code aiming at a generic estimate of the uncertainties. The results will be applicable for a wide range of European sites. 3 The projec will be carried out in close association with USNRC.
The results will provide a valuable input to judgements on compliance with safety goals and risk acceptability and to identifying future R & D priorities. The expert judgement methodology will also find wider use in other technologlcal areas.
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Programme(s)
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Coordinator
2628 EB Delft
Netherlands
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