As an extension of my doctoral thesis and in line with a way of thinkin which stresses the importance of the flow approach to labour markets, I propose a research agenda that can be summarized into three points: description of the data, modelling, and forcasting and simulation.
1) As a first step, it is necessary to glance at the data. My intention is to use longitudinal information given at microeconomic level by survey data and at macroeconomic level by data on vacancies and other relevant variables.
This information will be used to give a description of the gross flows which will be considered in the analysis. Also, another point of interest will consist on estimating those flows by industries, occupations and professional status, obtaining interesting information about the source and the destination of individuals. And, finally, I will try to find out a series of 'stylized facts' related to the gross flows behaviour in the business cycle (and find out their consistency with macroeconomic and labour market theories).
2) The second part of the research agenda deals with the development of model based on the gross flows of workers and jobs. This model aims at building behavioural equations for each flow between different labour market states and for jobs (vacancies). Special attention will be given to the formalisation of job creation (the matching function) and job destruction processes, and of the wage formation. These issues are considered of great importance, as they are the key issues for the functioning of the model. Therefore, different alternatives should be discussed in order to adequate the model to reality.
Also, the basic structure of the model can be extended to discuss more specific hypothesis about the functioning of labour markets.
3) The third part of the investigation deals with the use of the model for forecasting and simulation purposes. An important issue is to compare the results of the stock-flow model with those from a stock model in order to assess their relative accuracy. Also, two aspects related to the functioning of the model would be of great interest, i.e. to simulate the effects of different policies and changes of aggregate economic activity on the levels of employment and unemployment.
Fields of science
Call for proposalData not available
Funding SchemeRGI - Research grants (individual fellowships)
SO17 1BJ Southampton
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