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Changing population of europe: uncertain future

Objective

Forecasts of the age/sex composition of the population in all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA) will be computed up to 2050. The innovative aspect is that forecast uncertainty is quantified: we will compute so-called predictive intervals, which specify the probability that the future population will be between x and y million (and likewise for all age groups, at each year in the future). The traditional approach (applied e.g. by Eurostat and national agencies) is merely to run variant projections, for example assuming high, medium, and low fertility and /or mortality, without attaching probability content to them. In addition to the stochastic forecasts for all EEA-countries at the national level, sub-national stochastic forecasts will be computed for selected EEA-countries with good migration data. Illustrations will be given as to how uncertainty concerning the number of elderly in the future affects social policy.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

CENTRAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS
Address
Prinses Beatrixlaan 428
2270 JM Voorburg
Netherlands

Participants (3)

CENTRAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS
Norway
Address
Kongengate 6
0031 Oslo
TILASTOKESKUS
Finland
Address
Tyoepajakatu 13
00022 Helsinki
UNIVERSITY OF JOENSUU
Finland
Address
Tulliportinkatu 1
80101 Joensuu