Changing population of europe: uncertain future

Objective

Forecasts of the age/sex composition of the population in all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA) will be computed up to 2050. The innovative aspect is that forecast uncertainty is quantified: we will compute so-called predictive intervals, which specify the probability that the future population will be between x and y million (and likewise for all age groups, at each year in the future). The traditional approach (applied e.g. by Eurostat and national agencies) is merely to run variant projections, for example assuming high, medium, and low fertility and /or mortality, without attaching probability content to them. In addition to the stochastic forecasts for all EEA-countries at the national level, sub-national stochastic forecasts will be computed for selected EEA-countries with good migration data. Illustrations will be given as to how uncertainty concerning the number of elderly in the future affects social policy.

Fields of science

• social sciences › sociology › demography › mortality
• social sciences › sociology › demography › fertility

Programme(s)

• FP5-HUMAN POTENTIAL - Programme for research, technological development and demonstration on "Improving the human research potential and the socio-economic knowledge base" (1998-2002)

Topic(s)

• 1.4.1.-4. - Key action Socio-Economic Knowledge Base

Call for proposal

Data not available

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

CENTRAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Address

Prinses Beatrixlaan 428
2270 JM Voorburg
Netherlands

Participants (3)

CENTRAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Norway

Address

Kongengate 6
0031 Oslo

TILASTOKESKUS

Finland

Address

Tyoepajakatu 13
00022 Helsinki

UNIVERSITY OF JOENSUU

Finland

Address

Tulliportinkatu 1
80101 Joensuu