The consortium intends to research and develop a prototype management decision support tool based on System Dynamics models for short and intermediate (up to three years) planning horizons for the effective use of available water resources within an integrated resource and supply network. To achieve this broad aim the following objectives are defined :
* To carry out an investigation into the statistical modelling of rainfall catchment in order to quantify over a given geographic region and time scale the rainfall variation typical of the region.
* Development of a high resolution System Dynamics Model of the water supply and distribution network to support management decision making.
* To extend the Systems Dynamics model to function within an integrated resource management system and to add a GUI to produce a working end user prototype.
The study areas of the project are the islands of Cyprus and Malta.
* Two working System Dynamics models which can be used by water company personnel in Cyprus and Malta as a decision support aid for planning water resource utilisation.
* A comprehensive statistical rainfall model which can be used either in conjunction with the System Dynamics models or independently as a long term planning aid for developing improved water catchment strategies in semi arid regions.
The key activities include :
* Exploring the detailed spatial and temporal aspects of rainfall catchment. This work will incorporate a variation of the maximum likelihood method and adapt the latest developments on using the Data Based Mechanistic (DBM) approach to the modelling of non linear environmental systems It is also necessary to develop a specific statistical theory of errors for the distribution models developed. It is proposed to use detailed data from each of the two regions (Cyprus & Malta) covering a 50 year period to support this work. This will allow the estimation of parameter stability (or estimate the parameter drift) over this time period and draw conclusions about the applicability of the models developed to other similar geographic regions.
* Using the causal loop paradigm for each of the major systems (The Maltese Islands and the Southern Conveyer system in Cyprus) to develop causal loop diagrams for each of the elements (Reservoirs, aquifers, treatment works etc.) of the supply and distribution system (including both physical flows and control logic) and then to combine the elements into a complete causal loop diagram for the system.
* To develop a system dynamics model for the water supply network for each of the two regions, verify the model against the causal loop design and validate the models against historical data for the two regions
Funding SchemeCSC - Cost-sharing contracts
MSD 04 Msida
LQA 05 Malta