Objective
The present proposal is directed toward a better understanding of a major scientific problem: the estimation of probable consequences of global climate changes on boreal forest "islands" at the "taiga - tundra" ecotone in the Usa Basin territory. It hypothesizes a migration of the existing "taiga - tundra" border and seeks to define the probable dynamics and speed of this displacement in view of available forecasts for climate change in the coming decades. This proposal supplements the existing TUNDRA project, already funded by the EU, that comprises a complex study of one of the major Usa Basin ecosystems in which boreal forest islands serve as an indicator for both lowland (plain) and mountain ecotones.
The aims of this research will be detailed investigations of:
(i) species composition and structure of plant communities of boreal woodland islands at the "taiga - tundra" ecotone within the Usa Basin limits;
(ii) the estimation of their dynamics under the influence of current and predicted meso- and micro-climatic conditions, permafrost distribution, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes.
By employing GIS with ARC/INFO software coupled with field studies, the collected data will allow an assessment of the general characteristics and status of different types of forest "islands" ecosystems, to pinpoint the precise areas occupied by them at present, and to estimate their tendencies for change in recent decades through comparisons with literature-derived data. In turn, these results will allow for more accurately forecasting changes in the composition and structure of plant communities and areas of forest "islands" under global change scenarios including various types of regional anthropogenic disturbance. The use of GIS-technologies will enable the development of a series of electronic prognostic maps reflecting changes in the borders and structural characteristics of boreal ecosystems per decade.
Call for proposal
Data not availableFunding Scheme
Data not availableCoordinator
221 00 Lund
Sweden