Objective
This project will develop theoretical and numerical models of seismicity and seismic risk thus creating a new base for understanding, monitoring and prediction. Methodology is rooted in theoretical physics, mathematical statistics and elastodynamics. The importance of the project is due to the critical growth of the seismic vulnerability of the territories considered. The major interrelated goals are: to find, for the generating faults system of an earthquake, the set of integral parameters which control the critical transitions, expressed in dynamics of seismicity, particularly for strong earthquakes and large-scale creep; to estimate on this basis the major features of flow of an earthquake, including similarity, self-similarity, range in correlation in space and time limits of predictability; to design new methodology in monitoring of the stress-field in the faults system and in the surrounding crustal blocks; to design advanced algorithms for the modelling of strong motion, thus linking seismicity with seismic risk; to test the methods developed in selected regions of Europe, Russia and Armenia.
The expected results are: development of new models and related software of the structure and dynamics of the Earth, which will be applied to selected areas for the exploration of symptoms of instability and for earthquake prediction; determination of parameters controlling critical transition to create a base for the next generation of prediction algorithms; development and testing of theoretical methods for the inverse problem of the stress-strain fields in the solid Earth; development of methodologies for the analysis of satellite, seismological and geophysical data for pattern recognition of tectonic structures of special interest in the study of ecology, natural disasters and mineral deposits; development of methodologies for determination of the pattern of strong ground motion based on focal mechanism, regional structure and local ground conditions; seismic hazard estimation, based on deterministic modelling and the use of available geological, geophysical and seismotectonic data, for the assessment of the maximum expected acceleration on a predetermined grid in a certain seismic region; creation of a database containing three levels of data to be connected to GIS; and publication of results with at least one article for each research team per year.
The relevant algorithms and computer software, properly documented, will be developed, made user-friendly and tested at special workshops. As a follow up to this project it is planned to implement an integrated pilot-project for determining the pattern of regional ground motion as a result of probable strong events.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
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Programme(s)
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Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
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Funding Scheme
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Coordinator
34100 TRIESTE
Italy
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.