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Content archived on 2024-05-15

Prediction Of Software Error Rates Based On Test And Software Maturity Results


The objective of this research project is to develop a new, enhanced statistical model, which predicts the reliability of SW programs based on test and software maturity results. This new model will be implemented as a prototype which allows SMEs, especially small software companies, to predict the reliability of their developed and tested software in an easy and efficient manner with a higher accuracy than currently possible.

To estimate the next failure or the residual error rate of a program, SW reliability models have been developed, normally relying on the failure data collected during a test phase. Quality of the tests usually relates to maturity of the SW development process, the results of reliability are depending on this. So far this has not been incorporated into reliability modeling.

Software reliability is defined as the probability of failure-free software operation for a specified period of time in a specified environment. An enhanced theoretical model is subject of this research project to rise accuracy of predictions. It will be tested in comparison to an existing baseline model on the basis of 3 existing applications.

Work description:
A precise study of the existing reliability models must first be conducted. In addition, various models must be studied for evaluating the maturity of the software development and test process. Detailed studies of existing models, as described in technical literature, will be the basis for the development of a new, enhanced reliability model.

Based on the studies an existing classical software reliability model will be chosen as baseline model. The new enhanced model will build upon this baseline model and incorporate software process and test maturity as input parameters.

A prototype of the new model will be implemented in order to allow a detailed assessment and analysis. These will be used for predicting the reliability of several actual applications. As the test data is collected over time, software reliability will be predicted at the various stages. Earlier predictions will then be compared to the reliability achieved at later stages. In addition the accuracy of the prediction of the new SR model will be compared to the predictions of an existing baseline model.

1. Selection and implementation of the baseline software reliability model (Start+1y)
2. Definition and implementation of the new enhanced software reliability model (Start + 17m)
3. Evaluation and analysis of the new, enhanced software reliability model (Start + 2y)

Call for proposal

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Participants (4)