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Production forecasting with uncertainty quantification 2

Objective



The proposed project is the continuation of the ongoing PUNQ project (Joule contract JOF3-CT95-0006) and adresses the issue of managing the production forecast risk associated with hydrocarbon reservoir developments.
To improve recovery from existing fields, the uncertainty in scenario forecasts has to be quantified and if possible reduced. A wealth of data, from a large variety of sources is available. This data needs to be combined in a formally unbiased way that honours the information content inherent in the data. Statistical theory provides the formal framework in which the "Uncertainty" can be "Managed".

The projected achievements of the ongoing PUNQ project toward mid-1997 indicate that a next phase should be entered. Altough the ongoing PUNQ project is targe ted at an initial period of 18 months (January 1996 to mid 1997), the total PUNQ work content was initially based on a conceptual project duration of three years. For budget reasons, however the project was split into two parts, with only the first part submitted to Joule-III's first call, with the plan to submit the second half as PUNQ-2 to the second Joule III call. A number of ongoing PUNQ tasks were therefore planned to be adressed only partially, with the full deliverable to be supplied as part of a planned follow-up project.
PUNQ-2 is aimed at further developing a methodology to quantify and reduce the uncertainty in production forecast of hydrocarbon reservoirs. As part of this, the not so evident relation between a "good" history match and a "good" production forecast will be investigated. The objective of the methodology is that eventually the quantified uncertainty can be used in economic risk assessment. Results of this methodology can finally be inverted to design an optimal data acquisition programme for optimal, cost-effective risk reduction of hydrocarbon developments.

Compared to the ongoing PUNQ project, the emphasis of PUNQ-2 will be Integration and Demonstration of the PUNQ results. This is planned to be achieved by applying the methodologies developed as part of PUNQ to two synthetic reservoir models, also developed as part of PUNQ. The two synthetic models are :
PUNQ-S2 model (second "simple" PUNQ synthetic model : heterogeneous, multi-layer, multi-well oil-rim reservoir, with some 2000 grid blocks); Punq-Complex model (geologically realistic North Sea Brent-type analogue reservoir model, number of simulation grid blocks to be determined).
The main deliverables are :
- an algorithm to compute the probability density function of future production
- method validation through two geologically (near) realistic, heterogeneous synthetic models.

Call for proposal

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Coordinator

NETHERLANDS ORGANISATION FOR APPLIED SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH - TNO
EU contribution
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Address
97,Terrein University College Utrecht, Gebouw U en W,
3508 TA UTRECHT
Netherlands

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Total cost
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Participants (9)