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Short-term prediction of regional wind power production

Objective



The proposed project will develop and implement a prediction system for the production from wind farms in Germany. It extends the ongoing JOULE project Implementing Short-Term Prediction at Utilities"(JOUR3-CT95-0008) by including Germany, the EU member state with the highest installed capacity of wind power.
The ongoing project uses forecasts from operational numerical weather prediction models (here: HIRLAM) which then are tailored to the specific site. Together with information about the wind farms in -a specific area a dedicated wind power forecast can be derived. The main goal of this ongoing project is to develop the power prediction models to such an extent that it can be demonstrated that any utility with a certain amount of installed wind energy capacity can use the models with economic benefits. The state of the ongoing JOULE project is such that the present project is independent of it, since the model framework has been finalised and verified.
The outcome of the proposed project is to:
1) Develop a prediction system for wind farm power production; 2) Verify the prediction model;
3) Make an analysis of the prediction error for the mean power output for an area considered;
4) Using a numerical weather prediction model with a higher spatial and temporal resolution as base for the power prediction model;
5) Extending the current project by German institutions and utilities.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

RISOE NATIONAL LABORATORY
Address
399,Frederiksborgvej 399
4000 Roskilde
Denmark

Participants (2)

Fachhochschule Magdeburg
Germany
Address
8,Am Krökentor
39104 Magdeburg
UNIVERSITY OF OLDENBURG
Germany
Address
9-11,Carl Von Ossietzky Straße 9-11
26129 Oldenburg