Objective
Energy consumption in the Basque Country is characterised by high industrial demand (almost two-thirds of final consumption) and within this sector, the clearly dominant position of steel (60% of energy used in industry).
However, in the 1980/85 period, regional consumption fell on average by 11%. Particularly significant in industry. this drop is a result both of the restructuring imposed by the economic crisis and the progress due to a dynamic regional policy promoting rational energy use.
The aim of EVE 2000 is to create a simulation instrument enabling various technological and socio-economic scenarios in the Basque Country to be translated into quantitative forecasts for long-term energy demands. These demands are to be expressed in terms of final uses as well as energy types.
The aim is to provide those responsible for energy policy with a "testing ground" of possible options, enabling immediate decisions to be implemented on the basis of their long-term consequences.
The EVE 2000 experience produced two results:
- first of all, the model's structure permitted a much more accurate and reliable diagnosis of the current energy situation in the Basque Country.
- the model then acted as a tool for forecasting regional energy demands based on a consistent, realistic scenario for the year 2000.
The strategic guidelines which may be identified from these estimates are the following:
- by the year 2000, industrial consumption will drop by 3.2 points whereas domestic and tertiary consumption will increase respectively by 1.3 and 1.4 points.
- growth in total energy demand over the projected period (23.1%) will be twice as slow as that of regional added value (49.3%) which means a 17.6% reduction of global energy intensity per unit produced.
- the scenario adopted in terms of substitution of vectors concludes that there will be an increase in the share of natural gas (multiplied by 4.6 between 1985 and 2000), whereas fuel oil will drop to a quarter of its level of consumption in 1985.
ANALYSIS
At the root of this search for energy diversification and saving. the major analysis work carried out in the region in recent years has advanced understanding of the complex consumption structures. This careful observation of the energy situation highlighted the structure of energy demand and its sensitivity to changes in certain production processes.
In this context, the Ente Vasco de la Energia (Basque energy body) (EVE) and Iberduero decided to develop "EVE 2000", a forecasting tool for long-term energy demands. The model was devised to be specifically adapted to the textures of regions where most of energy consumed is by energy-intensive industries.
The model was prepared in three stages:
COLLECTION
At the outset, current economic and energy information had to be collected on the main sectors contributing to the regional demand for energy industry, domestic sector, tertiary sector and transport. To this end, two surveys were carried out to supplement existing data: the first one concerned the up-dating of data available on industrial consumption, while the second one concerned domestic consumption. This initial diagnosis enabled the selection of the key factors determining the development of regional demand.
FORMALISATION
To simulate the mechanisms of energy demand formation, the technico-economic accounting approach was adopted, using the "MEDEE-SUD" model elaborated by the University of Grenoble's Institut d'Economie Politique de l'Energie (IEPE - institute of the political economics of energy). However, major modifications were introduced into this initial framework in order to adapt it to the specific features of the Basque situation (notably to take account of the influence of the steel industry, the use of heating and hot water in the residential sector, the special features of the Basque transport system etc ).
SCENARIO
The model "EVE 2000" thus established was then "fed" two types of scenarios covering the period 1985-2000. One describes the evolution of a number of socio-economic indicators, and it must be stressed that in this area, the very open nature of the Basque economy makes it extremely dependent on external factors. The other scenario concerned the technico-energy context with hypotheses linked to the rise in energy prices, the improvement in energy output, and the effect of substitution between vectors.
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DEM - Demonstration contractsCoordinator
48001 Bilbao
Spain