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Content archived on 2024-04-16

European Transport Planning Process

Objective


The specification of a new type of transport demand model, which would be dynamic and information sensitive has been defined and a first working prototype has been produced.
The general approach developed was a synthesis of 3 promising streams of new modelling research. These were microsimulation (which allows detailed treatment of the adaptation of behaviour at the individual level), activity based analysis (which allows travel to be considered in the context of household activity requirements, which evolve over time) and macroscopic techniques (which allow functional treatment of empirical relationships which may not yet be fully understood at the individual level). The specification was constructed around the idea of a simulated individual, living in a simulated household defined by life style and life cycle position, which evolves over time in accordance with demographic, economic, social and physical processes. There is a pattern of planned activities and in order to carry them out decisions are necessary concerning their location, timing, methods of travel and routes. When the individual sets out to realise the plan, there is a process of choice, which takes account of conflicts and opportunities due to changing circumstances, external information or earlier decisions (including wrong decisions which might have caused delay or failure to carry out certain activities). There is a learning process which enables plans, or the methods of travel used, etc, to be changed day by day or week by week. That experience is also accumulated and influences responses to longer term choices. This approach was embodied in an idealised version of the model.
A prototype version of the model has been implemented in C++ under the X-window system using the OSF/MOTIF window manager, running on UNIX platforms. Some but not all of the fundamental algorithms have been tested using travel survey data from France, and experimental choice data from the Netherlands. In addition, a pilot version of the model was used for 2 case studies, one on the effects of pretrip information and the other on the effects of urban road pricing, using data from Dutch and German applications.
A prototype was made available on 08/25/92
To take RTI effects into account for traffic forecasting and transport planning tools, the DRIVE workplan suggests the general idea of building macroscopic relationships from microscopic behaviour rules. The new tools should restore the image of the existing transport planning process; they will consist of a series of steps and models developed with reference to the traditional trip generation, modal choice and route choice process of the 'partially' informed traveller.
Even if the EUROTOPP project (which is aiming at major technical and intellectual innovation in the field) is aware of the possibility that in some cases systems have synergistic rules of operation which do not derive simply from individual behaviour, they will implement the suggested approach in two ways. The analytical form of the mathematical functions used will have a sound statistical basis in behavioural theory. When the behavioural laws are so complex that the mathematical and statistical relationships are not fully defined, the project will use some of the techniques of `simulation' modelling.
The project will take the best elements from existing approaches in the light of the properties that the final model must have, namely it must:
- be comprehensive
- be sensitive to traffic policy and RTI developments
- have the ability to deal with the whole network in detail or a general system in lesser detail
- have a rigourous statistical and mathematical basis
- allow dynamic formulation with an explicit timescale
- be consistent with research on travel behaviour
- retain flexibility for later development.
As part of the project's work the new planning approach will be incorporated in system specifications suitable for software implementation. In order to test the scope, characteristics and data requirements of a transport planning tool based on dynamic methods, an existing microscopic simulation model will be developed further. This pilot model will be tested in two case studies relating both to urban and inter-urban situations. The case studies will include public transport with special reference to its treatment of traveller information.
Four time frames will be used to structuring the modelling effort: long term, medium term, daily and trip. The results from lower levels will be incorporated into the decision mechanisms of the higher levels and alternatively the choices at higher levels should serve as constraints at the lower level (dynamic modelling).
Four stringent tests of validity will be carried out, namely
- accuracy of representation of base data
- accuracy in reproduction of known elasticities
- ability to forecast a known outcome
- internal consistency and consistency with completed fundamental research.
Liaison with those working on other DRIVE tasks in the '200' series is particularly important.
Main Deliverables:
EUROTOPP software and manual; case study field work report.

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University of Oxford
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OX1 2JD Oxford
United Kingdom

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Last update: 12 March 1990

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Permalink: https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/V1023

European Union, 2024