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EU Calculator: trade-offs and pathways towards sustainable and low-carbon European Societies

Deliverables

Integration of the “Jobs, value added, and social impact” module

Jobs, Value added and social impact are modelled. The modules correspond to the output of Task 8.7.

Integration of the “Lifestyles” and “Climate” modules

The impact of the economy on lifestyle is modelled (including elasticity parameters). The impacts of Demography and climate on other elements of the model are assessed. Various scenarios describing the dynamics of the EU with the rest of the world are provided to WP7. The modules are clearly documented and correspond to the output of Task 8.3.

Carbon Capture Use and Storage module

Capturing carbon dioxide as industrial raw-material or for storage will be analysed and respective logic integrated into the EU Calculator (with milestone of preliminary findings on month 18).

Water-energy nexus input spreadsheet for calculator model

Input data and levers definition, as well as levels setting for water-energy nexus modelling. First version as documentation for co-design workshop, while second a consolidated version based on the workshop (with milestone of preliminary findings on month 18).

A comprehensive database of the EU building stock and energy consumption

The database presents the results of Task 2.3, thus providing the required knowledge base on the building stock, energy use and emissions for EU buildings.

Final scientific conference

The final scientific conference will bring together high-profile scholars from the field of energy and climate research and the EUCalc team for presenting the final products of the project. It is an output of Task 10.6.

Integration of the “Transboundary effects, trade & flows” module

Food, Energy, GHG emissions, materials, resources & economic impact flows are modelled between countries and with the rest of the world. The flows are consistent with the dynamics described in WP1 and the amounts described in the “Energy & resources” section. The modules are clearly documented and correspond to the output of Task 8.6.

Storage requirements Module

A refined time granularity is added to the energy system model. The needs for storage (from daily to long term), for electricity interconnections, and for demand side managements are estimated. The modules are clearly documented and correspond to the output of Task 8.5.

Integration of the resources modules “Land allocation, biodiversity impact & forestry”, “Water scarcity” and “minerals” modules

Land allocation implied by the food and energy production modelled. The biodiversity impact is evaluated. Forestry is modelled. Water and minerals demand and availability are modelled. The modules are clearly documented and correspond to the output of Task 8.4.

Formalizing the relation between EU-level emissions and those from the RoW: perspectives and scenarios for the EUCalc

A report on methodology about the interplay of Europe and the rest of the world

Biomass conversion routes input spreadsheet for calculator model

Data and levers definition, as well as levels setting for biomass conversion routes as input for modelling. First version as documentation for co-design workshop, while second a consolidated version based on the workshop (with milestone of preliminary findings on month 18).

Concluding workshop for call for evidence

This report will contain information on the list of participants with venue and date and will report on stakeholder feedback on the EU Calculator model. The changes are clearly documented and correspond to the output of Task 8.8.

EUCalc model/Pathways Explorer – release

Initial version of the EUCalc Pathways Explorer (pilot application); output of Task 9.3.

EUCalc model/Pathways Explorer - release 2

Intermediate version of the EUCalc Pathways Explorer (Call for Evidence version) and launch version of the EUCalc Pathways Explorer; output of Task 9.4.

A comprehensive database of the EU vehicle fleet, broken down by country

The database presents the results of Task 2.1. It will provide the required knowledge base on transport and travel parameters, covering the EU vehicle fleet, travel modes, energy use and emissions, as input into the model.

Raw materials module and manufacturing and secondary raw-materials module for EUCalc

The first part of the deliverable will be on input data and levers definition, as well as level setting for raw material conversion routes as input for modelling. Critical – in terms of GHG emissions, economic importance and supply risk – raw-materials will be identified and respective data integrated into the EU Calculator accordingly. The second part of the deliverable covers an inventory, input data and levers definition, as well as levels setting for technologies improving energy efficiency of manufacturing processes as input for modelling. A sound module of the EU Calculator will deal with bio-based raw-materials and will be harmonised with the modules land use and water demand. First version as documentation for co-design workshop, while second a consolidated version based on the workshop (with milestone of preliminary findings on month 18).

28+1-country version of the EU Calculator Model

The 28+1 country version is performed. The degree of calculations performed at national and at EU level is now determined. The rationale supporting the level of geographic segmentation for each element is clearly documented. Output of Task 8.2.

Land, land use, minerals, water and biodiversity input spreadsheets (2) for calculator model

Provide lever and ambition levels, metrics for all the parameters. Assess and project scenarios to integrate in the alpha model. Create two spreadsheets (1. for land, land use, minerals, and; 2. Water and biodiversity) including the data needed to parameterise each lever (developed under WP4) along with a methodology description to integrate the lever definitions into the working model (preliminary findings milestone, month 9).’ Output of Task 4.1.

Report on emissions reduction potential under technological and dietary change

Detailed report as result of Task 4.5 on diet scenarios considering business as usual and alternative healthy diets will be provided. Data on emissions and energy associated with the different diet scenarios will be produced using outputs from D1.2 (preliminary findings milestone, month 9).

Final scientific publication

This final publication (special issue in peer-reviewed scientific journal) will present the main scientific outcomes of the project. It is targeted to the research community at EU and international levels. The publication is an outcome of Task 10.6.

Expert consultation workshop on the biodiversity and water impacts of biomass provision for food, feed, energy and materials in the EUCalc

Refined spreadsheet of data, workshop reports, supporting documentations (e.g. list of participants) based on the consultation workshops with experts to collect their comments/suggestions. Output of Tasks 4.3 and 4.4.

EUCalc Dissemination and exploitation strategy

The document will define the strategy, tools and timing of all planned dissemination, communication and exploitation activities. It will be drafted at the outset of the project and regularly evaluated and updated. Output of Task 10.1.

Stakeholder mapping

Stakeholder mapping report including the list of 20-30 most relevant socio-economic actors from business, technology innovators, civil society and policy centres, for each of the expert consultations. Output of Task 9.2.

Report on Town Hall discussions on climate change and related socio-economic implications and incentives for medium- to long-term decarbonisation pathways

This report will report about and summarise the planned Town Hall discussions to engage with key socio-economic actors (business community, civil society, technology innovators) and to promote the EUCalc Transition Pathways Explorer. Output of Task 10.5.

EUCalc exploitation plan

Definition of a strategy and activities for the sustainability and transfer of the EUCalc outputs (based on exploitation strategy defined in D10.2. Related to Task 10.7.

Documentation of the EUCalc GTAP version and Portfolio of GTAP outputs

"Detailed documentation of the specific version of the GTAP model and database developed for the EUCalc project; a library of GTAP results for a set of important, relevant and representative scenarios to be plugged into the EU Calculator including a sensitivity analysis. The selection of these representative scenarios are outlined in D7.2 and will be jointly finalized during the co-design process of WP7 with internal partners and external experts (Task 7.3). Once selected, these representative scenarios will be used to form an ""envelope"" to approximate the full range of the virtually unlimited user-defined decarbonization pathways. (Outputs from Task 7.4)"

Life-styles in Europe: perspectives and scenarios

Definition of life styles for the European Union and the member states, their description in terms of energy usage (lever definition), projection into the future for integration in the EUCalc model and respective documentation of methods.

Electricity and oil refinery input spreadsheet for calculator model

Data and levers definition, as well as levels setting for electricity and oil refineries as input for modelling in the calculator. First version as documentation for co-design workshop, while second a consolidated version based on the workshop (with milestone of preliminary findings on month 18).

Downscaled Climate Change Scenarios for Europe, Estimation of incremental European Warming Contribution

A report and spatial data on baseline and future climate scenarios (downscaled) for the European continent.

Expert consultation workshop on land, land use and carbon stock dynamics (LULUCF), biomass provision (food, energy, materials) & minerals

Refined data / spreadsheet, workshop reports, supporting documents (e.g. list of participants) based on the consultation workshops on biomass and on water with experts to collect their comments/suggestions. Output of Task 4.2.

User demand documentation

Documentation of demand analysis and potential impact on model and web tool design and on refinement workshop; output of Task 9.1 (with milestone of preliminary findings on month 4).

Lessons learnt from EUCalc: further research and innovation needs

This Deliverable is on knowledge gaps and policy recommendations: i) Further needs in research and innovation ii) research achievements and next steps. It is related to task 10.6

Expert consultation workshop on buildings

This report will contain information on the list of participants with venue and date and summarise conclusions for the buildings sector. It is related to Task 2.4.

Expert consultation workshop on electricity and fossil fuels

The report will include the most important findings will be used to fine tune data and levers for previous deliverables. In addition it will contain information on the list of participants with venue and date.

Training and alignment workshop as kick-off of the expert consultation meetings

Preparatory workshop, internal to the consortium, to discuss and set the stage for the expert consultations workshop (desired outcomes, stakeholders’ engagement strategy, workshop material, workshop program, facilitation, participatory methodologies, workshops follow up plan, etc.). Output of Task 9.2.

EUCalc Factsheet for European Commission

The factsheet will give a short overview on the main features, objectives and (expected) results of the project. The format provided by the European Commission will be followed. Output of Task 10.1.

Implementing co-designed research: Experiences from expert consultation workshops

This deliverable will compile “lessons learned” in EUCalc in terms of engaging with stakeholders, so as to better inform future climate policy support and modelling projects. It is related to Task 9.2

Data management plan update

Final report on management of research data and how it will be made open access. Output of Task 11.1.

"EUCalc ""European Pathways Explorer"": Achievements, Benefits and Model Simplifications"

A detailed policy brief, outlining i) which policy questions have been addressed by each models/modules, and who they were targeting, ii) a brief description of key modelling features, and iii) the level of transparency of the modelling exercise (assumptions, documentation, etc.). Coauthors are PIK and Imperial. It is related to Task 8.8

Formulation of baseline projections and documentation on modeling approach review

D7.1 contains two main elements: a set of baseline forecasts and assumptions that would lead to projected state of the world economy including transboundary trade and flows in 2050; and a set of modifications made to the GTAP model which are necessary to accommodate the assumptions and mechanisms captured in sectoral WPs in this project. The baseline will represent the most likely prospect of the world economy to 2050. The review documentation will reflect the state-of-art of the CGE modelling approach for future project guidance. (Outputs from Task 7.1)

Expert consultation workshops on manufacturing and minerals

This report will contain information on the list of participants with venue and date and conclusions for the manufacturing and minerals sectors (Output of Task 3.3).

Advisory Board contributions 3rd

The report will give an overview on the contributions of the Advisory Board to the advancement of the EUCalc project during the third year. Output of Task 11.1.

Detailed work plan for first six months

In order to avoid a slow start of activities a detailed work plan for the first six months will be developed during the kick-off meeting with clearly assigned tasks to all involved partners. Output of Task 11.1.

Advisory Board contributions 1st

The report will give an overview on the contributions of the Advisory Board to the advancement of the EUCalc project during the first year. Output of Task 11.1.

Identification of levers and levels for the building stock

Levers and levels affecting changing energy use and consumption patterns in the building stock will be identified as result of Task 2.3.

Method for implementation of EUCalc co-design process

This deliverable will present the method and time plan for the expert consultation workshops and the public call of evidence. Output of Task 9.2.

Identification of levers and levels for different modes of transport

The impact of levers and levels affecting changing behaviour, modes of transport and efficiencies of mobility service provision will be identified. The report is related to Task 2.2.

Technological transition and innovation pathways

Provision of technological transition pathways for the European Union and member countries, integration into the EUCalc model

Advisory Board contributions 2nd

The report will give an overview on the contributions of the Advisory Board to the advancement of the EUCalc project during the second year. Output of Task 11.1.

Report on expert consultation on life style development, economic and demographic growth

This report will contain information on life-styles for further usage in WP1.

Decoupling typologies in European economies

Formal definition of stylised decoupling scenarios for Europe and member states and a written documentation of the used methodologies.

Data and model for the integration of district heating

Solutions and their integration with the advanced energy conversion technologies in the building sector, translation into levers as result of Task 2.3.

Documentation of GTAP-EUcalc inferface and design of GTAP scenarios

A report documenting how to translate results developed in WPs 1-6 into perturbations to the GTAP model and presenting the scenarios to be simulated. (Outputs from Task 7.2)

Expert consultation workshop on transboundary effects

Report summarizing the views and suggestion for improvements of project partners and experts from the trade modelling community, as well as reflections by the researchers involved in this WP on how to incorporate feedbacks into the model. In addition it will contain information on the list of participants with venue and date. (Outputs of Task 7.3).

Expert consultation on transport

This report will contain information on the list of participants with venue and date and conclusions for the transport sector. It is related to Task 2.2.

Results from EUCalc/Pathways Explorer for the building sector: European and Member States Insights

Projections of Energy demand and GHG emissions from heating buildings. It is related to Task 2.3

Energy intensive industry demand

Input data and levers definition, as well as levels setting for industrial energy demand conversion routes as input for modelling (with milestone of preliminary findings on month 18).

EUCalc Project website

Activation of EUCalc project website as a key element for dissemination and communication activities. Output of Task 10.1.

Massive Open Online Courses module for the My Europe 2050 tool

The “My Europe 2050” will be developed as module for Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) that are offered at BSc level and hosted at several domains, such as EdX. Output of Task 10.4.

“My Europe 2050” e-learning tool

The My Europe 2050” e-learning tool will be a simplified educational web tool for trainees and students in the field of business and technology. Output of Task 10.2.

Policy briefs

At least one policy brief per sector to be created targeting political actors at EU level. Two policy briefs will be distributed at the EU Sustainable Energy Week in 2019 and at the planned high-level EUCalc Pathways Explorer launch among other dissemination workshops. The others will be finalised by M38. Output of Task 10.4.

Design elements and videos

Del 10.5 contains design elements for the EUCalc Pathways Explorer (and the educational tool), a “walkthrough of the application”- video and minimum 3 other animated movies that will inform the user about the most important sectors like energy, land-use, transport to show the social impacts and how they influence the different projections, benefits and pathways for a future Europe (pathway narrations). It will be available in various languages. Output of Task 10.3.

High-level event for launch of EUCalc Pathways Explorer

A launch event for the EUCalc Pathways Explorer with at least 80 participants will be organised in Brussels. The target group are EU-national (relevant governmental departments representatives) and European policy makers (DG-Res, DG-Clima, DG-Env, DG-Energy, DG-Agri, DG-Health) in charge for the implementation of the SET-Plan and other climate, energy, agriculture and health relevant policies. Output of Task 10.4.

Initial version of the model

The core model structure is filled with proposed data and provides calibrated results. At the end of step 1, proposals are made regarding the interface with the additional modules and the geographic segmentation. Following the end of step 1, there is a strong emphasis on documentation: the model will include documentation next to each model assumption and calculation in the model. The model will include descriptions of the values of each lever and their rationale (milestone of preliminary findings on month 9).

Data management plan

Definition on management of research data and how it will be made open access. Output of Task 11.1.

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Publications

The emission benefits of European integration

Author(s): Luís Costa, Vincent Moreau
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14/8, 2019, Page(s) 084044, ISSN 1748-9326
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab3738

Hire fast, fire slow: the employment benefits of energy transitions

Author(s): Yann Füllemann, Vincent Moreau, Marc Vielle, François Vuille
Published in: Economic Systems Research, 2019, Page(s) 1-19, ISSN 0953-5314
DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2019.1695584

The Role of Electricity Balancing and Storage: Developing Input Parameters for the European Calculator for Concept Modeling

Author(s): Miklós Gyalai-Korpos, László Zentkó, Csaba Hegyfalvi, Gergely Detzky, Péter Tildy, Nóra Hegedűsné Baranyai, Gábor Pintér, Henrik Zsiborács
Published in: Sustainability, Issue 12/3, 2020, Page(s) 811, ISSN 2071-1050
DOI: 10.3390/su12030811