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Demographic Responses tO Varying Environments under climate change

Project description

Understanding environmental variability effects on wild populations

Climate change has altered the mean and short-term variability of environmental factors such as temperature and food resources. While the effects on wild populations are apparent for changes in the mean environment, the impacts of changes in the magnitude of environmental fluctuations are poorly understood. Understanding these impacts is crucial for predicting the effects of climate change on biodiversity. Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) programme, the DROVE project aims to understand how environmental variability affects wild populations. Using data from long-term individual-based population datasets of the great tit (Parus major), it will build population models to identify demographic strategies that underlie population persistence under climate change. DROVE will provide population dynamics theory-based statistical tools.

Objective

Ongoing climate change has altered both mean and short-term temporal variability of environmental conditions (such as temperature or food resources). While there is strong evidence that wild populations are deeply influenced by changes in the mean environmental conditions and respond accordingly (e.g. shifts in phenology, in species ranges), population responses to changes in the magnitude of environmental fluctuations are poorly understood. This knowledge is, however, crucial to better predict and anticipate climate change impacts on biodiversity. Hosted at the Institute of Mathematics of Bordeaux (University of Bordeaux), the project “DROVE” will be coordinated by Christie Le Coeur, a specialist in population ecology, who will benefit from the supervisor’s (Dr. F. Barraquand) expertise in ecological statistics and theory. This project aims to provide a robust statistical and theoretical framework to unravel the effects of changes in environmental variability on dynamics of wild populations, and to characterise the demographic mechanisms responsible for their persistence under climate change.
This goal will be achieved by defining metrics to measure population persistence and demographic strategies in a variable but also density-dependent environment (when population growth slows down as population density increases) as previous work on variable environments has ignored this almost ubiquitous population regulation. The researcher will then build population models with data from long-term, individual-based population datasets of a well-studied species across Europe, the great tit (Parus major), to explain intra- and inter-population variations in demographic strategies and persistence in varying environments. Combining long-term empirical surveys with state-of-the-art model development, this project will provide statistical tools solidly grounded in population dynamics theory to understand environmental variability effects on wild populations under climate change.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

Keywords

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Funding Scheme

HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships

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Call for proposal

(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2023-PF-01

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Coordinator

UNIVERSITE DE BORDEAUX
Net EU contribution
€ 195 914,88
Address
PLACE PEY BERLAND 35
33000 Bordeaux
France
Region
Nouvelle-Aquitaine Aquitaine Gironde
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost
No data