Project description
Historical climate data to enhance climate impact assessment
Climate change poses numerous risks to society including impacts to inflation and macroeconomic productivity. Effective climate policy requires good understanding of both past and future repercussions, but impact-attribution and near-term impact prediction face great uncertainties from internal climate variability. With the support of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the KLESIS project aims to improve the ability to attribute and predict climate impacts using attribution approaches informed by large ensembles and near-term predictions from initialised climate forecasts. In addition, the project will collaborate closely with the European Central Bank to help identify climate risks to inflation while providing projections of future impacts.
Objective
Climate change (CC) poses numerous risks to society. Amongst these, recent work has quantified the impacts which adverse climate conditions can exert on economic growth and inflation by applying empirical models (EMs) to historical data. Evaluation of the extent to which historical and future CC is changing such impacts is crucial for translating these empirical insights into actionable knowledge. Two key examples are quantifying the historical anthropogenic contribution to intensified impacts, and accurately projecting their near-term changes. These tasks face challenges because climate model ensembles often under-estimate forced changes in impact-relevant conditions such as extremes, and near-term changes are affected by both greenhouse forcing and internal variability, with the latter amplifying or masking impacts over decadal timescales.
KLESIS proposes to extend recent methodological developments in climate science to overcome these obstacles to an accurate evaluation of how climate impacts are changing. First, we will develop and apply statistical methods to attribute historical changes in impact-relevant climate conditions directly from observations. These methods will be tested in climate models, applied to observations and combined with EMs to evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to historical changes in climate impacts on the economy, crucial for informing loss and damage debates. Second, we will extend state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction systems to include impact-relevant conditions. Combining these with EMs will provide near-term estimates of climate impacts which accurately reflect the important and otherwise neglected role of internal climate variability. Finally, near-term projections of impacts on economic growth and inflation will be disseminated to stakeholders at the European Central Bank via a 6-month non-academic placement, to develop a framework for the assessment of physical climate risk in their quarterly macroeconomic forecasts.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences atmospheric sciences climatology climatic changes
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships
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Call for proposal
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Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2023-PF-01
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08034 BARCELONA
Spain
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