Project description
Analysing microclimate to explain delays in species distribution responses
Species and community distributions have not been following climate change as expected. Instead, researchers have reported delays in species distribution responses and shifts towards the equator. One explanation is that species distributions are more prone to microclimate bounds set by local ground temperatures. To substantiate this, however, requires analysis of the relevant baseline climate change data. Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the TrueClim project will leverage the global SoilTemp database, with over 100 000 in situ measured microclimate time series, to reasonably predict the rate of microclimate change over time. It then aims to use these new global microclimate data products to optimise field-based estimates of the pace of plant species distribution range shifts.
Objective
Recent research has increasingly highlighted that species and community distributions are not simply tracking climate change. Indeed, significant delays in species distribution responses, and even unexpected downward or equator-ward shifts have all been observed. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain these mismatches, such as slow population dynamics, habitat fragmentation or spread-limiting biotic interactions. Yet, the hypothesis forwarded here is that we first need the relevant baseline climate change data before we can accurately answer this question. Indeed, organisms respond to microclimate change, which can be strongly disconnected from macroclimate change. It is the local temperatures near the ground or below the vegetation - often tens of degrees different from weather station data - that set the bounds of organisms range limits. In this project, we will take advantage of the SoilTemp-database, a global database of more than 100,000 in-situ measured microclimate time series. I will use it to make global predictions of the rate of microclimate change over time. These new global microclimate data products will then be used to improve field-based estimates of the velocity of plant species distribution range shifts. These improved estimates of species reactions to climate change are critically needed to adjust biodiversity management to a rapidly changing world.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
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Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
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Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships
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Call for proposal
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(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2024-PF-01
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3584 CS Utrecht
Netherlands
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