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Weather forecasts for proactive short-term AGRicultural climate change ADAPTation

Project description

Weather forecast and proactive adaptation in agriculture

Agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly due to extreme weather events that can significantly reduce yields. While long-term adaptation is crucial, short-term measures are also necessary. The 2023-2027 Common Agricultural Policy offers limited support for such measures, focusing instead on subsidising insurance for weather-related losses. Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the AGR-ADAPT project will investigate the adoption of proactive adaptation strategies based on weather forecasts and assess their economic benefits alongside weather insurance. It will evaluate the impact of extreme weather events on farms and how farmers use forecasts to adapt. The project will also quantify the economic value of these proactive measures. Findings will be shared with policymakers.

Objective

Because crop growth is directly dependent on climate, the agricultural sector is arguably the most climate-vulnerable sector. Extreme weather events (EWE), worsened by climate change, can severely impact yields. Climate adaptation is crucial to mitigate this damage. Although most research has been done on long-term adaptation (i.e. farm measures taken in response to long-run climate change) farmers can take short-term measures in response to forecasted EWEs to reduce weather-induced damage. The 2023-27 Common Agricultural Policy dedicates inadequate attention towards this type of adaptation. Rather, it encourages the uptake of insurance to cover weather-induces losses subsidising insurance premiums. This project aims to gain insight into the adoption of proactive adaptation based on forecasts, its economic benefit and its complementarity to weather insurance in order to advise policymakers on a subsidy allocation which is in line with the Farm to Fork Strategy, which pursues a more resilient agricultural system.

The research will involve a comprehensive assessment of how EWEs, as defined by insurers’ weather indices, impact farm economic performance. It will provide an in-depth analysis of how farmers use weather forecasts to proactively adapt. The project will also evaluate the economic value of these proactive measures in reducing the impact of EWEs. Finally, the project aims to disseminate these findings to policymakers. The project will employ a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, including literature reviews, stakeholder interviews and econometric analysis, focusing on European horticulture and permanent crop farms.

The researcher, aspiring a senior research career with expertise in the economics of climate adaptation, will gain significant scientific expertise and transferable skills from this project. The host institution, recognised as a leading university in agricultural sciences, will position her well for a senior research role in the future.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

Keywords

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Funding Scheme

HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships

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Call for proposal

(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2024-PF-01

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Coordinator

WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY
Net EU contribution
€ 232 916,16
Address
DROEVENDAALSESTEEG 4
6708 PB Wageningen
Netherlands
Region
Oost-Nederland Gelderland Veluwe
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost
No data