Project description
Mapping future pandemic risks under global changes scenarios
Zoonotic spillovers and the global spread of infectious diseases pose a significant threat. Their risk depends on human-animal population interactions and mobility patterns, influenced by socio-economic and environmental factors. Changes in these behavioural factors will affect the likelihood of future disease transmission. With the support of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the KASSANDRA project will create maps of future spillover and global spread risks for infectious diseases of bat-origin. It will analyse scenarios related to climate change, land-use changes, and demographic and economic development. The risk maps will represent key evidence-based knowledge for preparing our society to future global health threats.
Objective
Zoonotic spillover and the subsequent global spread of infectious diseases represent an increasing global threat to our society. Projections of future zoonotic spillover events are based on the spatial copresence of human and animal host population and risk assessments of local outbreaks to spread globally rely on observed mobility data. However, human behaviour is a complex phenomenon driven by socio-economic, environmental and demographic factors that altogether shape human mobility patterns and the human-host contact rate, which is key to zoonotic spillover. By impacting these drivers, future global economic, demographic, environmental and climate change will alter the risk of zoonotic spillover and global spread of infectious diseases.
Here, focusing on scenarios of future climate and land-use change, demographic and economic development (SSP-RCP), I intend to (i) produce maps of future spillover risk that account for the behavioural determinants shaping human-host contact and (ii) assess the risk of the global spread of future infectious diseases. I will focus on infectious diseases of bat origin and I will estimate the effect of economic, demographic, environmental and ecological drivers in defining human-bat contact rates. Drawing on these results I will produce synthetic human-bat contact data and maps of future risk of zoonotic spillover. Then, I will use the risk maps to assess the risk of the global spread of future infectious diseases. To this end, I will use a global metapopulation model informed by projections of international human mobility patterns that will be obtained from a global international human mobility model that I will develop. In doing so I will include key drivers and behavioural processes (e.g. economic constraints) of human mobility. The outcome of the project will advance our understanding and preparedness to future zoonotic spillover and pandemic risks by accounting for human behaviour drivers in a context of global changes.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
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CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-GF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - Global Fellowships
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Call for proposal
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Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2024-PF-01
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
75654 Paris
France
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