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VOlcanic climate forcing over the onset of the Little ice age through TEphra geochemistry and Stratospheric Sulfate isotope analyses in polar ice cOres

Project description

How volcanic eruptions may have affected Earth’s climate

Volcanic eruptions play a key role in forcing Earth’s climate. During the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age, eruptions released sulphur aerosols into the atmosphere, which would have acted to cool the planet. These aerosols may have triggered feedback loops involving sea ice and oceans, amplifying the cooling effect. However, the precise sources of these eruptions and the amount of sulphur erupted remain unclear. Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the VOLTESSO project will analyse polar ice cores using advanced geochemical techniques to trace eruption sources and constrain atmospheric sulphur aerosol forcing. Climate models and historical records will also be used to explore the impact of volcanic activity on both climate and society.

Objective

The most recent climatic shift in the Northern Hemisphere before anthropogenic forcing became dominant was the transition from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA), a cooling that lasted until the late 19th century. A leading hypothesis for the LIA onset is that a series of large volcanic eruptions during the MWP-LIA transition, amplified by sea ice/ocean-related feedbacks, drove sustained cooling. Seven presumed tropical and six northern high-latitude eruptions have been identified from ice cores; however, their precise sources and the amounts of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection remain poorly constrained, hampering robust assessments of their climatic forcing. This project addresses these gaps by applying state-of-the-art tephra geochemistry and sulfur isotope analyses to polar ice cores to determine eruption sources and quantify stratospheric sulfate aerosol loadings for major eruptions between 1150 and 1350 CE. The new volcanic forcing record will be combined with existing paleoclimate data products to determine the climate impacts of closely timed eruptions at the start of the LIA. The project will also use aerosol-chemistry-climate models to simulate the impacts of Northern Hemisphere and tropical eruption sequences, assessing which scenarios – if any – could plausibly trigger the LIA through sea ice/ocean-related feedbacks. This comprehensive approach – combining novel ice-core measurements, comparative paleoclimate records, and model evaluation– will substantially advance understanding of whether, and by what processes and feedbacks, a sequence of major tropical and northern high-latitude volcanic eruptions contributed to Northern Hemisphere cooling or acted as a trigger for the onset of the LIA. Ultimately, the findings will provide critical observational constraints to refine climate model sensitivities to sulfur aerosol forcing, a key uncertainty in future climate predictions.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

Keywords

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Funding Scheme

HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships

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Call for proposal

(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2025-PF

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Coordinator

THE UNIVERSITY COURT OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ST ANDREWS
Net EU contribution
€ 260 347,92
Address
NORTH STREET 66 COLLEGE GATE
KY16 9AJ ST ANDREWS
United Kingdom
Region
Scotland Eastern Scotland Clackmannanshire and Fife
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost
No data