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Rating agencies, debt-for-nature swaps and the politics of green finance in the climate crisis

Project description

How does sovereign creditworthiness interact with nature-based debt relief?

Debt-for-nature swaps (D4NS) have gained traction as a promising financial mechanism that simultaneously relieves sovereign debt burdens and redirects freed resources towards initiatives addressing the environmental crisis. Though D4NS are appealing as a win-win instrument for governments, creditors and the environment, how credit rating agencies assess sovereigns undertaking D4NS arrangements remains poorly understood. Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the CLIMACRAs project aims to fill this gap. Through case studies in Belize, Barbados, Gabon and Ecuador, the project examines how rating agencies evaluate sovereigns that have used D4NS, illuminating tensions between traditional financial metrics and environmental objectives. In doing so, CLIMACRAs aims to generate evidence for policymakers to better align market behaviour with the imperatives of a sustainable future.

Objective

CLIMACRAs examines the interplay between credit rating agencies (CRAs) and debt-for-nature swaps (D4NS) amid the climate crisis. As the promotion of green finance gains urgency, CRAs’ behavior has become a matter of concern for global financial governance institutions, while D4NS emerge as tools to alleviate debt burdens in developing countries while funding environmental protection. Against this backdrop, the research addresses the following questions: How do CRAs respond to D4NS? Why do sovereign ratings vary post-D4NS? What does this reveal about CRAs’ role in green finance and D4NS’ potential in climate crisis mitigation? Focusing on the “Big Three” CRAs (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch), the project has four specific objectives: (i) situating CRAs and D4NS within the green finance ecosystem; (ii) understanding how D4NS are captured by sovereign rating methodologies; (iii) mapping and analysing the terms and conditions of D4NS; and (iv) identifying the key factors considered by CRAs when assessing countries that enter into D4NS. The hypothesis posits tension between CRAs’ financial system role and D4NS as green finance instruments. Methodologically, the study combines theoretical analysis of CRAs’ rating criteria with case studies of Belize, Barbados, Gabon, and Ecuador to assess CRA behavior in the context of D4NS agreements. By bridging theoretical and empirical gaps, CLIMACRAs will provide policymakers and global governance institutions with evidence to better align financial markets with climate goals. CLIMACRAs is hosted at SOAS University of London.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

Keywords

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Funding Scheme

HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships

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Call for proposal

(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2025-PF

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Coordinator

SCHOOL OF ORIENTAL AND AFRICAN STUDIES ROYAL CHARTER
Net EU contribution
€ 260 347,92
Address
THORNHAUGH STREET RUSSEL SQUARE
WC1H OXG London
United Kingdom
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost
No data

Partners (1)