Project description
Examining low-carbon heating technology diffusion in households
To advance the green transition and improve efforts to address the growing climate dangers, it is crucial to develop novel green and sustainability solutions and to optimise and encourage their implementation. Recent initiatives and the EU-wide tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD have sought to increase and accelerate the diffusion of low-carbon heating technologies in households. However, the lack of data on these initiatives has limited their effectiveness. With the support of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the TUDOR project will combine EUROMOD with the BENCH Agent-based model to examine households’ behavioural responses on both the extensive and intensive margins, reducing the cost of survey data collection and providing key information that can boost these initiatives.
Objective
The TUDOR project develops a modular bottom-up framework to assess the joint distributional impacts of carbon pricing, compensation payments, and technology subsidies in the EU residential sector. It links the EU-wide tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD with the BENCH Agent-Based model (ABM) to capture household behavioural responses along the intensive (energy use reduction) and extensive (technology adoption, retrofitting) margin. I will develop a BENCH module to simulate household energy consumption and investment in heat pumps and building retrofits. I will statistically match secondary EU datasets on climate attitudes and knowledge (Eurobarometer) into EUROMOD datasets to reduce the need for costly survey data collection and enable behavioural modelling across all Member States. The model will explicitly describe household decision-making rules, incorporating elements of rational choice and contextual behavioural factors. I will validate model projections against observed adoption rates. The linked EUROMOD-BENCH model will be complemented by building stock, energy price, and energy demand projections from MESSAGEix and MESSAGEix-Buildings models STURM and CHILLED. To identify barriers and enablers of heat pump and retrofit diffusion, I will develop an innovation systems map through stakeholder interviews, describing the roles, goals, and strategies of key actors in the diffusion process.
By combining these models, the project develops an interdisciplinary modelling framework to evaluate the equity (and effectiveness) of EU fiscal climate policy ex-ante, computing monetary costs and benefits of EU-wide carbon pricing and country-specific taxes, benefits, and technology subsidies using representative samples of EU member states' population. This framework will be used to assess the equity impacts of EU ETS2 and Member States' Social Climate Plans, combining insights from economics, behavioural science, engineering, and innovation studies.
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Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
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Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships
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(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2025-PF
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2361 Laxenburg
Austria
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