Project description
Multi-hazard approach to road network resilience under climate change
Europe’s road network needs improvements in terms of resilience to weather hazards to prevent serious socio-economic impact. Recent studies lack knowledge about the interconnection between hazards, which results in inefficient risk assessment and investments. Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, the ERMHIRA project is using computational analysis to study the impacts of different hazards on road networks as well as their recovery processes in terms of changes in climate. The project will formulate scenarios for present-day and mid-century climate and analyse infrastructure resilience to hazardous events and possible delays in their recovery due to issues of permitting and financing.
Objective
Europe faces an urgent need to bolster the disaster and climate resilience of its road networks, arteries underpinning socioeconomic well-being and emergency response. World Bank reports and key studies highlight that ageing bridges, embankments, and road sections are increasingly vulnerable to flooding, landslides, and other rainfall-driven hazards intensified by climate change. Unaddressed, these hazards can trigger cascading failures with severe socioeconomic consequences. Research often focuses on single hazards or isolated network components, overlooking complex multi-hazard interactions and their compounded community impacts, leading to skewed risk assessments and suboptimal resilience investments.
The ERMHIRA framework offers a unified, end-to-end computational approach for multi-hazard impact and recovery analysis of road networks under evolving climate conditions. ERMHIRA integrates physics-based scenario generation across present-day and mid-century climate states; dynamic fragility and vulnerability modelling of infrastructure under sequential hazards; recovery-process simulation that captures delays from permitting, financing, and partial repairs; network-level impact assessment via dynamic Bayesian networks to quantify connectivity loss and restoration timelines; and a GIS-based decision-support platform for testing, prioritising, and selecting resilience measures through risk-informed, multi-criteria analysis.
Applied to a 5132 km heterogeneous road network in Hertfordshire, England, comprising approximately 202 congestion hotspots, the ERMHIRA framework will leverage the Host Institution’s stakeholder partnerships to test and optimise performance. ERMHIRA will deliver actionable outputs (datasets, software modules, and best-practice guidelines) to equip engineers, planners, and policymakers with critical insights for designing climate-adaptive, multi-hazard-resilient road infrastructure across Europe.
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Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
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Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships
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(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2025-PF
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WC1E 6BT London
United Kingdom
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