Project description
Predicting biodiversity loss through species range and trait dynamics
As biodiversity declines at an unprecedented pace, the reliance on static, short-term data remains a barrier. This limits our understanding of the long-term processes that drive species toward extinction. Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the TRAJECT project is developing a new framework that links historical range dynamics, species traits, socio-economic pressures, and abundance trends. The outcome would be greater insights into and predictions of biodiversity loss in terrestrial vertebrates. This involves examining the effect of range contraction on the reshaping of ecological niches in mammalian, bird, amphibian, and reptilian species.
Objective
Global change is driving biodiversity loss at unprecedented rates, yet current biodiversity forecasts often rely on short-term or static data, limiting their ability to identify mechanisms and anticipate future dynamics. Extinction is a progressive process of population loss, and species’ current ranges reflect millennia of human impacts, but most models overlook these historical trajectories. This limits our capacity to disentangle drivers of decline and risks producing biased or misleading forecasts. TRAJECT (Trait-based Forecasting of Species Range Trajectories under Global Change) will overcome this limitation by developing an innovative interdisciplinary framework to link long-term range dynamics, trait–threat interactions, socio-economic contexts, and abundance trends across terrestrial vertebrates. First, I will conduct the first cross-taxa test of whether range contractions lead to “niche truncation” across climate and land-use dimensions, assessing patterns in mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Second, I will integrate socio-economic data, ecological traits, and threats into models of contraction trajectories in mammals to understand how vulnerabilities shift along the extinction process. Third, I will combine range dynamics with abundance data using novel Bayesian sequential models to generate robust forecasts of carnivore distributions under future climate and land-use scenarios. By uniting ecology, earth system science, social sciences, and advanced statistics, TRAJECT will deliver unprecedented insights into the mechanisms of biodiversity loss and identify robust hotspots of persistence and recovery. The results will directly inform IUCN and IPBES assessments, support EU biodiversity policy, and strengthen conservation strategies under the European Green Deal. The fellowship will position me at the forefront of biodiversity science, broaden my interdisciplinary expertise, and consolidate the foundations for academic independence.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- natural sciences biological sciences ecology ecosystems
- natural sciences biological sciences zoology mammalogy
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2025-PF
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
RG6 6AH Reading
United Kingdom
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.