Objective
Multistate Markov Models (MMM) are powerful tools for analyzing the progression of diseases through different stages, particularly in oncology. Recent studies have modeled stage transition probabilities as functions of multimodal, time-dependent biomarkers to enable predictions based on histopathological features. However, current MMM approaches often overlook the reverse relationship—that is, the influence of the disease stage on the evolution of time-dependent biomarkers. At worst, this omission leads to misspecification bias, at best we miss the opportunity of a better modeling. In this proposal, I aim to address this gap by developing MMM methodologies that explicitly account for the bidirectional relationship between stage progression and associated time-dependent covariates, I call them bidirectional-MMM (bi-MMM).
This research is particularly relevant in cancer screening contexts, where a patient's cancer stage influences treatment decisions and, consequently, the trajectory of their biomarkers, which might be high-dimensional and missing at random. A more accurate representation of cancer progression enables the design of personalized screening protocols, thereby improving the harm-to-benefit ratio and reducing the risk of overdiagnosis –when a patient is heavily treated for a cancer that would not have caused symptoms or harm during their lifetime. Overdiagnosis is particularly prevalent in prostate cancer screening compared to other cancer screening programs, even though prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men in Western countries.
The supervisors of this project, Prof. Auvinen and Prof. Nevalainen, are currently leading an innovative prostate cancer screening initiative at Tampere University, in alignment with European health policy goals. This initiative is the primary motivation and data source for the project. A secondment in France is also planned with Prof. Proust-Lima, a leading expert in MMM, to enhance the project's impact.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
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CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
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Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships
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Call for proposal
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(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2025-PF
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
33100 Tampere
Finland
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.