How much oil is there?
Uncertainty is a part of any modelling exercise. It has many sources. One is lack of reliable or sufficient input data. Another is inadequate parameterisations of physical processes that cannot be fully modelled. Despite its limitations, however, modelling is an important tool in many scientific disciplines. Modelling of clastic hydrocarbon reservoirs is essential for proper exploitation of the energy reserves contained therein. The SAIGUP project, funded in part by the EU's Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development Programme, targeted improved understanding of uncertainty in reservoir modelling. As reservoir characteristics vary greatly from one site to another, it is necessary to address this variation in the form of sensitivity testing. However, a balance must be struck since computation time increases with the number of configurations. Careful management of this trade-off by the SAIGUP consortium has allowed for general conclusions to be drawn despite the fact that model validation was limited. The exercise revealed several key findings with respect to the important, and unimportant, factors contributing to uncertainty. Sediment characteristics were found to play an important role, independent of scale. For instance, the aggradation angle, which until now has generally been disregarded, is actually crucial. On the other hand, structural features are more critical when it comes to extraction. Based on the research, the SAIGUP partners make some basic recommendations for reducing model uncertainty. One is to improve three-dimensional fault mapping. This arose from the discovery that fault geography significantly affects model uncertainty. Another suggestion is to fund more core analysis research, specifically to revise existing permeability and capillary pressure curves. Following up on these recommendations will help us get the most out of the world's finite hydrocarbon reservoirs. The academic and industrial partners involved in SAIGUP are proceeding accordingly.
