Trending science: Climate change may bring higher temperatures than ever experienced on Earth to Gulf
The study, by Prof. Jeremy Pal and Prof. Elfatih A. B. Eltahir from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, reveals that in the absence of significant mitigation efforts, climate change is likely to severely impact human habitability in the Gulf region - including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha, Saudi Arabia and Iran’s coast - in the future. Using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations, the authors project that under a ‘business-as-usual’ emissions scenario, the ‘wet-bulb’ temperature in the Gulf will approach and exceed a threshold of 35 °C. Wet-bulb temperature is a combined measure of temperature and humidity or degree of ‘mugginess’, and the 35 °C threshold is important because it defines limit of survivability for a fit human under well-ventilated outdoor conditions. While 35 °C is the threshold for a ‘fit human’, the limit is actually lower for most people, especially those who are physically more vulnerable such as the elderly. The business-as-usual scenario assumed in the research posits that this threshold could be exceeded in the Gulf if the world continues along current trends of greenhouse gas emissions and the Earth warms by 4 ºC this century. Reporting on the study, which was published in Nature this week, the Guardian notes(opens in new window) that under this scenario, by 2070, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Iran’s coast would in fact experience higher temperatures and humidity than have ever before been experienced on Earth. The hottest days of today would by then be ‘a near-daily occurrence’: They said the future climate for many locations in the Gulf would be like today’s extreme climate in the desert of Northern Afar, on the African side of the Red Sea, where there are no permanent human settlements at all.’ However, the researchers do also strike an note of hope, stating that cutting greenhouse gas emissions now could avoid this fate. This point is particularly pertinent in the lead-up to COP21, the international conference on climate change in Paris where representatives from over 190 governments will gather at the end of November. The authors of the study say that cutting greenhouse gases now could avoid this fate towards the end of the century. The Guardian quotes Prof Eltahir: ‘We would hope that information like this would be helpful in making sure there is interest [in cutting carbon emissions] for the countries in the region. They have a vital interest in supporting measures that would help reduce the concentration of CO2 in the future.’ For further information, please visit: ‘Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability’(opens in new window)
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