Towards a sustainable and competitive transport industry
Studying the effects and outcomes of existing vision documents can increase the impact of potential transport foresight studies because they offer the opportunity to modify future plans and expectations. The extensive foresight literature and body of knowledge at hand could potentially shape actions to promote a more efficient and sustainable transport sector. With this in mind, the EU-funded RACE2050 (Responsible innovation agenda for competitive European transport industries up to 2050) project identified key success factors for sustained growth of the European transport industry and for policies to strengthen it over the long term until 2050. Following an exhaustive assessment of past transport foresight studies, the project partners developed and validated scenarios that represent possible positive and negative futures for 2030 and 2050. These scenarios serve as opposing visions on the status of the European transport industry's global competitiveness. The two prototype scenarios were presented and elaborated in a series of workshops targeting key players from the transport industry and research community as well as policymakers and foresight experts. The team assessed the current EU transport industry situation and estimated the impact of the transport market, investigating as well the driving forces and challenges shaping current and future transport demands. It also analysed the trends, limitations and challenges of the technological, economic and social factors affecting the transport industry. Rather than adding another foresight study to what already exists, the project developed the Transport Synopsis Tool to analyse some 100 already available future studies on European transport. The free online platform is open to industry stakeholders, policymakers and the public. In parallel, the project articulated six scenarios on the future of the European transport industry, outlining both 'dark scenarios' and 'bright scenarios'. These studies will ultimately enable the sector to maintain its leading position in the world economy up to 2050, paving the way for a more sustainable transport sector.
Keywords
Transport industry, foresight studies, sustainable transport, 2050, Transport Synopsis Tool
