Novel risk models for financial disasters or shocks
The EU-funded RARE (Risk analysis, ruin and extremes) project addressed rare events and extremes by analysing environmental and financial risks through the use of probabilistic tools and approaches. To achieve this, it established a global network. RARE focused on developing a theoretical perspective on the analysis of risk probabilities in case of disasters or extreme shocks for financial or environmental risk pools. It also centred on creating new risk measures and assessing aggregate risk effects. In total, 20 doctoral and 20 postdoctoral fellows were hired who specialised in applied probability, statistics, stochastic analysis, extremes, and financial and insurance mathematics. Partner institutions were 12 leading research centres from Europe, Australia, China, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The network now exceeds 100 researchers from around the world. Over 200 scientific articles were submitted for publication, raising overall awareness of rare and extreme events and significantly boosting the visibility of researchers. These papers highlight results such as new concepts on rare events analysis, new risk measures, extreme behaviour analysis, and improvements on existing risk analysis tools and statistical applications. Knowledge and expertise were continually fostered through university seminars, conferences, workshops and dedicated sessions at international events. A final workshop gathered over 60 international experts representing academia and industry from 5 continents. They discussed a broad variety of future topics, ranging from transformation of uncertainty into measurable risks to the role of regulators, communication and new democratic systems. Most project results were posted on arXiv.org a highly automated electronic archive and distribution server for research articles maintained and operated in the United States. RARE work will improve current risk modelling tools and provide guidance in the evaluation and prediction of risks. Ultimately, it will help in the assessment and management of any domain dealing with random events, competitive markets and risk management.
Keywords
Financial disasters, shocks, financial risk, risk analysis, RARE