2007 to be warmest year yet, predicts UK Met Office
This year could well be the warmest on record globally, according to predictions from climate change experts at the UK's Met Office and the University of East Anglia (UEA). They forecast that the global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54°C above the long term (1961-1990) average of 14°C. There is a 60% probability that 2007 will be at least as warm as 1998, which currently holds the title of hottest year on record. 'This new information represents another warning that climate change is happening around the world,' said Katie Hopkins of Met Office Consulting. The Met Office and UEA release their forecast of the global surface temperature every January; over the past seven years, their predictions have proven to be remarkably accurate, with a mean forecast error of just 0.06°C. Their predictions are based on a range of factors, including solar effects, El Niño, greenhouse gas concentrations and other multi-decadal influences. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently released figures estimating that 2006 was the sixth warmest year on record, with a global mean surface temperature of 0.42°C above the long term average. In Europe, both the summer and autumn were unusually warm, with many countries registering their warmest autumns since records began. In April, however, large areas of Europe were left under water when the River Danube reached its highest level in more than a century. The WMO will release the official figures for 2006 in March.