Could climate change be responsible for the next pandemic? A warming world raises the risk of new infectious diseases, says new study. Fundamental Research © Roman Barkov, Shutterstock When we think of climate change, weather disasters and the destruction they leave behind normally come to mind. But there’s also another danger brought on by climate change that’s lurking. It has to do with diseases and viruses that could spread from animals to humans in the future. According to research published in the journal ‘Nature’, global warming will force animals to move away from hotter climates. These species will then come into contact for the first time. The forced migration means that new habitats will likely be created in regions where there’s a lot of human activity. As a result, the risk of a viral jump to humans could greatly increase, potentially leading to the next pandemic. As temperature goes up, so does pandemic risk “As the world changes, the face of disease will change too,” co-lead author Gregory Albery, an expert in disease ecology at Georgetown University in the United States, told ‘The Guardian’. “This work provides more incontrovertible evidence that the coming decades will not only be hotter, but sicker.” More doom and gloom. “This hidden cost of climate change is finally illuminated, and the vision this paper shows us is a very ugly future for wildlife and for people,” warns Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance, a global NGO focused on pandemic prevention. Using computer modelling, the researchers found that global warming will drive 4 000 viruses to spread between mammals for the first time by 2070. This includes potentially also between animals and humans. Bats will be the biggest culprits because they are one of the few mammals that can fly “At every step, our simulations have taken us by surprise,” commented co-lead author Colin Carlson, an assistant research professor at the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University Medical Center in a news release. “We’ve spent years double-checking those results, with different data and different assumptions, but the models always lead us to these conclusions. It’s a really stunning example of just how well we can, actually, predict the future if we try.” Apocalypse now When the viruses start to jump between host species at rates never before seen, they will have dramatic effects on conservation and human health. “This mechanism adds yet another layer to how climate change will threaten human and animal health,” stated Dr Albery. “It’s unclear exactly how these new viruses might affect the species involved, but it’s likely that many of them will translate to new conservation risks and fuel the emergence of novel outbreaks in humans.” “We’re closer to predicting and preventing the next pandemic than ever,” added Dr Carlson. “This is a big step towards prediction — now we have to start working on the harder half of the problem.” Speaking of problems, about EUR 1 billion are needed to correctly identify and counter viral spreading patterns. Daszak dealt a final blow in ‘The Guardian’ article: “What’s even more concerning is that we may already be in this process – something I didn’t expect and a real wake-up call for public health. In fact, if you think about the likely impacts of climate change, if pandemic diseases are one of them, we’re talking trillions of dollars of potential impact.” Keywords climate change, pandemic, disease, virus, animal, global warming
