Santa is bringing bad news about some of our favourite foods
The truth is that luxury crops such as grapes, coffee and cacao beans have always relied on very fragile climates to grow. But with climate change, the delicate balance of temperature, rainfall and humidity needed to grow them is becoming more and more difficult. Can you imagine a holiday setting where coffee, chocolate or wine are off the menu? But on a more serious note, the livelihoods of many millions are being threatened. The economic fallout is huge, too, considering these valuable commodities support global industries worth hundreds of billions of euro. The EU’s chocolate industry faces the biggest threat as the world’s largest producer and exporter.
Is engineering the climate the answer?
A team of researchers at Colorado State University in the United States want to prevent these devastating outcomes by exploring experimental tech known as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). This method cools down the planet by releasing tiny particles called aerosols high up in the atmosphere. These particles would reflect a small amount of the Sun’s light and heat back into space to bring down global temperatures and slow down climate change. Climate scientists warned that even the revolutionary SAI may not be enough to save important crops. Undeterred, the researchers modelled climate patterns to see how SAI might influence conditions from 2036 to 2045 in 18 key grape, coffee and cacao growing regions across Europe, South America and West Africa. They assessed the suitability of the crops on the basis of temperature, rainfall, humidity and disease risk. The results showed that while SAI could lower temperatures, it didn’t reliably guarantee the stable or favourable conditions needed for these crops to grow. Only six regions showed consistent improvement compared with situations that didn’t use SAI. The process was ineffective partly because it wasn’t able to successfully deal with precipitation, as extreme rainfall, flooding and humidity also severely affect these crops. The findings were published in the journal ‘Environmental Research Letters’(opens in new window).
More than just climate intervention
“Reducing temperature with SAI alone isn’t enough,” commented co-author and atmospheric scientist Ariel Morrison in a press release(opens in new window). “For instance, cacao species, while more tolerant of hot temperatures than coffee and grapes, are highly susceptible to pests and diseases caused by a combination of high temperatures, rainfall, and humidity. Natural climate variability also cannot be ignored – it leads to a wide range of outcomes under the same SAI scenario that could affect the livelihoods of farmers growing cacao, coffee, and grapes.” So SAI isn’t the long-term solution, nor can it fix what ails the farmers involved in these crops. “SAI climate intervention may offer temporary relief from rising temperatures in some regions, but it is not a guaranteed fix for the challenges facing luxury crop farming. Adaptation strategies tailored to local conditions, investment in resilient agricultural practices, and global cooperation are essential to saving these crops and the communities that depend on them,” concluded Morrison.