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Dynamic land use change modelling for CAP impact assessment on the rural landscape

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New system advances green rural development

A high-tech policy support system will enable decision makers and stakeholders in the agricultural sector to encourage sustainability, improve rural development and address environmental concerns.

Climate Change and Environment icon Climate Change and Environment

With agriculture claiming half of the EU's territory, it is important that land is allocated and used in the best possible manner, in line with socioeconomic needs and environmental considerations. This has traditionally been the role of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which is designed to encourage sustainability, environmental preservation and fair returns to farmers. The EU-funded project 'Dynamic land use change modelling for CAP impact assessment on the rural landscape' (Lumocap) was established to develop tools for evaluating changes in land use and assessing their impact. The project worked on creating a computer-based policy support system (PSS) that considers user-inputted policy options under various socioeconomic conditions to develop land-use scenarios. The tool would be able to assess impacts of driving forces and scenarios on rural landscapes, helping avoid wrongful land-use decisions and veer towards sustainable agricultural ecosystems. Lumocap developed a powerful land-use model based on the dynamic between landscape changes and the CAP. The new model helped evaluate policy development scenarios comprising many external factors and policy measures, forecasting land cover and future spatial distribution of land use among other factors. Initial results of the PSS demonstrated that this new approach is more user friendly and will improve policy analysis, although more testing is required to identify all its strengths and weaknesses. The system's results were discussed with end users during workshops and were disseminated through conferences, online and in print. Its impact on sustainability and the environment is expected to be a positive one.

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