Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis - Food chain uncertainty assessment The European Commission and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission have published the results of a joint project aimed at assessing the uncertainties of the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes introduced in 1990. The MACCS and COSYMA codes were developed p... The European Commission and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission have published the results of a joint project aimed at assessing the uncertainties of the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes introduced in 1990. The MACCS and COSYMA codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. The objective of the joint EC/US project is to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgement elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in this report. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. The results of these panels are described in companion reports.
