Modelling industry transition to climate neutrality, sustainability and circularity (Processes4Planet partnership) (RIA)

Development of the model

Currently the modelling tools to represent EU industry’s pathways to climate neutrality are not fully developed. The new modelling capacity should cover historical development starting in1990 and projections up to 2070 and this for the European Union and Associated Countries altogether and each Member State/country separately as well as for European Economic Area according to the five dimensions outlined in the expected outcomes. Considering that materials, chemicals and goods are sourced and traded globally, or at least regionally, global sourcing and trade has to be captured with relevant granularity and based on exogenous assumptions and/or links with global trade models;. Considering that these industries link with other sectors of the economy, innovative ways have to be found to integrate such capacity in a fully consistent energy system picture and to link it with broader macro-economic developments (notably as far as demand for industrial products is concerned) and meta-trends such as digitalisation.

The proposals should be built in a modular manner and progressively lead to the development of an integrated modelling capacity allowing to capture the economics and behavioural aspects of demand, production and trade of materials, as well as techno-economic trajectories of the industrial sectors identified above. That would include (but not necessarily limited to) concepts from system dynamics modelling (for materials flows and stocks), techno-economic modelling (for the economics of production costs, elasticity of demand or trade effects), macro-economic modelling (socio-economics impacts), as well as agent-based modelling (choices of materials or technologies). The proposal should produce first results available for review by the project midterm.

The proposals as a part of its validation and stakeholders’ involvement will enable to participate in peer-review processes, scientific conferences and publish in scientific journals and create possibilities for a feedback loop from stakeholders. The modelling capacity should be continuously developed based on the feedback from stakeholders.

Modelling of scenarios

Secondly, the proposals should deploy this new modelling capacity to explore, through the development of several “what if” scenarios, capturing all dimensions mapped above in a consistent way. The scenarios produced with the model should be contrasted but internally consistent in their policy and economic contexts, presenting different pathways for climate neutrality transition in terms of energy needs, addressing the process emissions as well needs and supply of material and technological options to produce the materials in needed quantities. In addition, a preliminary approach for tracing the carbon embedded in products and replacing fossil carbon in materials should be explored.

Proposals should seek cooperation and give input to the Processes4Planet partnership Advisory Committee panels,[[Memorandum of Understanding for the Co-programmed European Partnership Processes4Planet (P4Planet), 3. Governance. http://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/research_and_innovation/funding/documents/c_2021_4113_f1_annex_en_v3_p1_1213806.pdf]] i.e. “Impact Panel” and as social innovation is concerned, the “Feedback Panel”.

Proposals should build on or seek collaboration with existing projects and develop synergies with other relevant European, national or regional initiatives, funding programmes and comparative tools e.g. the Energy and Industry Geography Lab of the Joint Research Centre.

Cooperation with other selected projects under this topic is strongly encouraged.

This topic implements the co-programmed European partnership Processes4Planet.