Coulomb stress calculations are more and more commonly being used to make intermediate term estimations of seismic hazard along particular faults or fault segments. For example, the portion of the North Anatolian fault that ruptured in the devastating M=7. 4 Izmit earthquake was identified two years previously as being of particularly high seismic hazard. Following that event, two additional areas became highly stressed, one failed in the M=7.1 Duzce aftershock 3 months later, the other is currently seen as posing a high hazard to Istanbul. Such stress calculations contain two elements, a secular or tectonic load due to plate motions and a co-seismic load due to stress redistribution following large earthquakes.
Although the methodology for computing co-seismic loading is straightforward, new research shows that the techniques for calculating tectonic loading employed along simple structures is not appropriate in more complex fault networks; the 2003 Bingol earthquake, for example, occurred on a fault with apparently very low seismic hazard based on traditional secular loading methods. Here we propose an Intra-European Fellowship to improve modelling of strain accumulation and redistribution in structurally complex regions by integrating GPS-derived strain measurements with heterogeneous finite element models in order to improve estimations of seismic hazard.
This project will build directly on the collaboration established between INGV and UU during the Framework V PRESAP project and will contribute to the development of a European Research Area by strengthening this collaboration, transferring research competencies between institutions, and broadening the career prospects of the fellowship applicant. It will also assist in the promotion of excellence in European research by strengthening its cutting-edge research on Coulomb modelling.
Field of science
- /natural sciences/earth and related environmental sciences/geology/seismology/plate tectonics
Call for proposal
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