The Patterns of Conflict Emergence: Developing an Automated Pattern Recognition System for Conflict

Project Information

PaCE

Grant agreement ID: 101002240

DOI

10.3030/101002240

EC signature date 5 March 2021

Start date 1 January 2022

End date 31 December 2026

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 952 848,00

EU contribution

€ 1 952 848,00

Coordinated by

THE PROVOST, FELLOWS, FOUNDATION SCHOLARS & THE OTHER MEMBERS OF BOARD, OF THE COLLEGE OF THE HOLY & UNDIVIDED TRINITY OF QUEEN ELIZABETH NEAR DUBLIN
Ireland

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (12)

Temporal Patterns in Migration Flows Evidence from South Sudan

Author(s): Thomas Schincariol, Thomas Chadefaux
Published in: Journal of Forecasting, Issue 44, 2025, Page(s) 575-588, ISSN 0277-6693
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/for.3209

Winners and losers in U.S.–China trade disputes: A dynamic compositional analysis of foreign direct investment

Author(s): Yoo Sun Jung, Yohan Park
Published in: Social Science Quarterly, Issue 105, 2024, Page(s) 980-995, ISSN 0038-4941
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13362

Dynamic Synthetic Controls: Accounting for Varying Speeds in Comparative Case Studies

Author(s): Jian Cao, Thomas Chadefaux
Published in: Political Analysis, Issue 33, 2024, Page(s) 18-31, ISSN 1047-1987
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1017/pan.2024.14

An automated pattern recognition system for conflict

Author(s): Thomas Chadefaux
Published in: Journal of Computational Science, Issue Vol. 72, 2023, ISSN 1877-7503
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.jocs.2023.102074

Remittances, terrorism, and democracy

Author(s): Casey Crisman-Cox, Yohan Park
Published in: Conflict Management and Peace Science, Issue 41, 2024, Page(s) 598-622, ISSN 0738-8942
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/07388942231207029

The effect of terrorist attacks on attitudes and its duration

Author(s): Oguzhan Turkoglu; Thomas Chadefaux
Published in: Political Science Research and Methods, Issue 11 (4), 2022, Page(s) 893-902, ISSN 2049-8489
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2022.2

VSG-GAN: A high-fidelity image synthesis method with semantic manipulation in retinal fundus image

Author(s): Junjie Liu, Shixin Xu, Ping He, Sirong Wu, Xi Luo, Yuhui Deng, Huaxiong Huang
Published in: Biophysical Journal, 2024, ISSN 0006-3495
Publisher: Biophysical Society
DOI: 10.1016/j.bpj.2024.02.019

How China’s Multilateral Engagement Shapes Threat Perception Amid Rising Authoritarianism

Author(s): Jungmin Han, Xin Han, Alexander Zhang
Published in: Journal of Contemporary China, 2025, Page(s) 1-18, ISSN 1067-0564
Publisher: Carfax Publishing Ltd.
DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2025.2549103

Public and Private Information in International Crises: Diplomatic Correspondence and Conflict Anticipation

Author(s): Constantine Boussalis, Thomas Chadefaux, Andrea Salvi, Silvia Decadri
Published in: International Studies Quarterly, Issue 00208833, 2022, ISSN 0020-8833
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqac056

Accounting for variability in conflict dynamics: A pattern-based predictive model

Author(s): Thomas Schincariol, Hannah Frank, Thomas Chadefaux
Published in: Journal of Peace Research, 2025, Page(s) 18, ISSN 0022-3433
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/00223433251330790

The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Jonas Vestby, Alexa Timlick, Noorain Syed Kazmi, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Friederike Becker, Marco Binetti, Tobias Bodentien, Tobias Bohne, Patrick T. Brandt, Thomas Chadefaux, Simon Drauz, Christoph Dworschak, Vito D’Orazio, Hannah Frank, Cornelius Fritz, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Sonja Häffner, Martin Hofer, Finn L Klebe, Luca Macis, Alexandra
Published in: Journal of Peace Research, 2025, ISSN 0022-3433
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/00223433241300862

A shape-based approach to conflict forecasting

Author(s): Thomas Chadefaux
Published in: International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, Issue 03050629, 2022, Page(s) 633-648, ISSN 0305-0629
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2009821

Conference proceedings (2)

Intersectional Hatred - An Application of Large Language Models to Detect Hate and Offensive Speech Targeted at Congressional Candidates in the 2024 U.S. Election

Author(s): "Müge Finkel, Dhanaraj Thakur, Steven Finkel, Firat Duruşan, Erdem Yörük, Işık Topçu, Melih Can Yardi, Amanda Zaner, Jungmin Han"
Published in: Companion Proceedings of the ACM on Web Conference 2025, 2025, Page(s) 2776-2781
Publisher: ACM
DOI: 10.1145/3701716.3716880

Learning Mixtures of Gaussian Processes through Random Projection

Author(s): Emmanuel Akeweje, Mimi Zhang
Published in: Proceedings of the 41st International Conference on Machine Learning, Issue PMLR 235, 2023, Page(s) 720-739
Publisher: MLResearch Press