Periodic Reporting for period 1 - REXUS (MANAGING RESILIENT NEXUS SYSTEMS THROUGH PARTICIPATORY SYSTEMS DYNAMICS MODELLING)
Période du rapport: 2021-05-01 au 2022-10-31
The interdependencies between the Water, Energy, Food and Environment sectors have grown in recent years, along with the realisation that purely sectoral viewpoints or traditional silo models cannot lead to sustainable solutions. Growing demand for resources create trade-offs, which are complicated by the impact of climate change. The Water-Energy-Food-Environment Nexus approach is a powerful concept for addressing the interrelationships of resource systems and moving towards better coordination and utilisation of natural resources, taking into account existing trade-offs and moving towards synergies. However, progress in terms of incorporating Nexus thinking in practical policymaking has been slow.
This issue is important for society, taking into account the competition between some sectors like the energy industry and agriculture sharing the water resources and land. Agriculture is a strategic sector for food security, economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Access to energy is a key factor for economic development. In essence, political strategies must look for addressing the interdependency between the nexus domains, with the adequate and sustainable management of resources.
The REXUS Project aims to close the gap between science and policy, moving from Nexus Thinking to Nexus Doing. It brings together the scientific tools and the integrated vision necessary to analyze real-world conditions, including frictions and climate risks. This issue is addressed employing Systems Dynamic Modelling, it is designing sustainable and actionable forward-looking solutions that increase resilience across sectors, integrating the big data available (Earth Observing Data, soil, climate, crops,…) and feedback from stakeholders. These solutions, clearly visualised, will form the basis of forward-looking and participatory decision making.
This issue is important for society, taking into account the competition between some sectors like the energy industry and agriculture sharing the water resources and land. Agriculture is a strategic sector for food security, economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Access to energy is a key factor for economic development. In essence, political strategies must look for addressing the interdependency between the nexus domains, with the adequate and sustainable management of resources.
The REXUS Project aims to close the gap between science and policy, moving from Nexus Thinking to Nexus Doing. It brings together the scientific tools and the integrated vision necessary to analyze real-world conditions, including frictions and climate risks. This issue is addressed employing Systems Dynamic Modelling, it is designing sustainable and actionable forward-looking solutions that increase resilience across sectors, integrating the big data available (Earth Observing Data, soil, climate, crops,…) and feedback from stakeholders. These solutions, clearly visualised, will form the basis of forward-looking and participatory decision making.
During this period a great effort has been dedicated to establishing a high participation level of stakeholders (Water Managers, Policymakers, Farmers, Energy producers and distributors, Consultants, Scientifics, Technicians, ...) in the five pilot areas, Nima-Cauca Watershed in Colombia, the Pinios River Basin in Greece, the Peninsular Spanish area, the Lower Danube area, and the transboundary Isonzo/Soča river basin between Italy and Slovenia. In parallel, the main laws and regulations concerning the management of water, energy, food/agricultural sector as well as the main bodies relevant for decision-making in these areas have been identified. On the other hand, the more salient structures governing the nexus problems from an integrative perspective have also been mapped. The main international and regional instruments relevant for the management of water, energy, and food, have been identified to address the nexus issues in an integrative manner. This material provided the ground for the analysis on the adequacy of current governance structures to mainstream nexus approaches.
The REXUS Observatory provides an interface to share data between the consortium in a way that they feed the Participatory System Dynamics Models and Nature Based Solutions proposed in each pilot area. It includes a complete study of climate projections mapping and climate risk assessment; the energy and carbon footprint methodology development and applied in the Nima watershed; the Land Use mapping for Peninsular Spain and developing the methodology for Land Use suitability for the main crops in the study areas; the water accounting and footprint methodology and application to Jucar Basin Area (sub-pilot in Peninsular Spain) and Pinios; and a selection of socioeconomic indicators for nexus systems in all pilots.
The integration of the data allowed to define pilot-specific Causal Loop Diagrams to describe the complexity of interconnections between sectors in all pilot areas.
A roadmap to assist a variety of decision-makers at different levels in identifying potential Nature-based Solutions (NbS) to be implemented under the perspective of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus has been developed.
The REXUS Observatory provides an interface to share data between the consortium in a way that they feed the Participatory System Dynamics Models and Nature Based Solutions proposed in each pilot area. It includes a complete study of climate projections mapping and climate risk assessment; the energy and carbon footprint methodology development and applied in the Nima watershed; the Land Use mapping for Peninsular Spain and developing the methodology for Land Use suitability for the main crops in the study areas; the water accounting and footprint methodology and application to Jucar Basin Area (sub-pilot in Peninsular Spain) and Pinios; and a selection of socioeconomic indicators for nexus systems in all pilots.
The integration of the data allowed to define pilot-specific Causal Loop Diagrams to describe the complexity of interconnections between sectors in all pilot areas.
A roadmap to assist a variety of decision-makers at different levels in identifying potential Nature-based Solutions (NbS) to be implemented under the perspective of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus has been developed.
REXUS goes beyond the state of the art in many ways, with innovations that support each other in their effectiveness and impact. The most prominent examples are:
REXUS LAAs are integrating discussion and knowledge sharing activities with a structured visioning process that concludes in the elaboration of transition roadmaps for the management and operationalisation of the WEFC nexus.
Matching Participatory Systems Dynamics Models (PSDM) with LAAs is an innovation that will support a collective definition of system characteristics, dynamics and boundaries, integrate different forms of knowledge and data, and operate both at a qualitative / conceptual level (e.g. through the use Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Causal Loop Diagrams) and at a quantitative level (e.g. through stock and flow models and using SD as a ‘meta-model’).
Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) in REXUS will provide the methodological and practical foundations for the selection of suites of solutions that use EbA as an underlying principle, to be implemented in pilot areas.
REXUS explores multiple ways in which Nexus operational management can be progressed through innovative use of EO. Novel energy and water accounting and footprint estimation methods based on dense time series of high spatial resolution images (free from Sentinel-2) are providing timely and easy-to-use maps of crop growth, water and nutrients requirements and consumption, including embedded energy and yield forecast.
Key impacts of the implementation of the REXUS highly integrated strategy will be the following:
REXUS will allow for more accurate evaluations of future demands for WEFC and related infrastructures, at local, transboundary and global scales.
REXUS will also enhance sharing knowledge and best practices in climate-water-energy-food nexus assessment and management and help create a critical mass on capacity to innovate.
REXUS will improve integrated water resources management and increase resilience to climate change, considering the value of water for ecosystems and their services and ensuring good quantitative and qualitative status of water, sustainable agriculture, food and energy production, as well as water, food and energy security.
REXUS will enable the co-design of resilience-enhancing solutions that reduce water risks for a range of future Energy Mix scenarios within (i) combined climate risk assessment, (ii) coupled resource flow analysis and (iii) adaptation strategies.
With the support of PSDM, REXUS enables evidence-based multi-objective policy design, which can help aligning overarching policies in distinct domains. For the first time, REXUS attempts to establish and mainstream a strong link between climate adaptation (NDCs of the Paris Agreement) and Nexus management. Moreover, the proposed EbA is a recognized, suitable vehicle to greening the CAP.
REXUS will contribute to reducing institutional fragmentation whilst increasing cross water, energy, food collaboration and inclusive multistakeholder engagement by using a specifically designed LAA process.
By broadening the scope of water diplomacy to include Nexus considerations, REXUS can support the development of “diplomatic” instruments and mitigate conflicts through cooperation and promotes regional stability (from local to transboundary), and gives the EU the tools required to develop leadership in this field.
REXUS LAAs are integrating discussion and knowledge sharing activities with a structured visioning process that concludes in the elaboration of transition roadmaps for the management and operationalisation of the WEFC nexus.
Matching Participatory Systems Dynamics Models (PSDM) with LAAs is an innovation that will support a collective definition of system characteristics, dynamics and boundaries, integrate different forms of knowledge and data, and operate both at a qualitative / conceptual level (e.g. through the use Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Causal Loop Diagrams) and at a quantitative level (e.g. through stock and flow models and using SD as a ‘meta-model’).
Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) in REXUS will provide the methodological and practical foundations for the selection of suites of solutions that use EbA as an underlying principle, to be implemented in pilot areas.
REXUS explores multiple ways in which Nexus operational management can be progressed through innovative use of EO. Novel energy and water accounting and footprint estimation methods based on dense time series of high spatial resolution images (free from Sentinel-2) are providing timely and easy-to-use maps of crop growth, water and nutrients requirements and consumption, including embedded energy and yield forecast.
Key impacts of the implementation of the REXUS highly integrated strategy will be the following:
REXUS will allow for more accurate evaluations of future demands for WEFC and related infrastructures, at local, transboundary and global scales.
REXUS will also enhance sharing knowledge and best practices in climate-water-energy-food nexus assessment and management and help create a critical mass on capacity to innovate.
REXUS will improve integrated water resources management and increase resilience to climate change, considering the value of water for ecosystems and their services and ensuring good quantitative and qualitative status of water, sustainable agriculture, food and energy production, as well as water, food and energy security.
REXUS will enable the co-design of resilience-enhancing solutions that reduce water risks for a range of future Energy Mix scenarios within (i) combined climate risk assessment, (ii) coupled resource flow analysis and (iii) adaptation strategies.
With the support of PSDM, REXUS enables evidence-based multi-objective policy design, which can help aligning overarching policies in distinct domains. For the first time, REXUS attempts to establish and mainstream a strong link between climate adaptation (NDCs of the Paris Agreement) and Nexus management. Moreover, the proposed EbA is a recognized, suitable vehicle to greening the CAP.
REXUS will contribute to reducing institutional fragmentation whilst increasing cross water, energy, food collaboration and inclusive multistakeholder engagement by using a specifically designed LAA process.
By broadening the scope of water diplomacy to include Nexus considerations, REXUS can support the development of “diplomatic” instruments and mitigate conflicts through cooperation and promotes regional stability (from local to transboundary), and gives the EU the tools required to develop leadership in this field.