MANAGING RESILIENT NEXUS SYSTEMS THROUGH PARTICIPATORY SYSTEMS DYNAMICS MODELLING

Project Information

REXUS

Grant agreement ID: 101003632

DOI

10.3030/101003632

Project closed

EC signature date 7 May 2021

Start date 1 May 2021

End date 31 October 2024

Funded under

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Climate action, Environment, Resource Efficiency and Raw Materials

Total cost

€ 4 984 331,25

EU contribution

€ 4 984 331,25

Coordinated by

UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA - LA MANCHA
Spain

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - REXUS (MANAGING RESILIENT NEXUS SYSTEMS THROUGH PARTICIPATORY SYSTEMS DYNAMICS MODELLING)

Reporting period: 2022-11-01 to 2024-10-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The interdependencies between the Water, Energy, Food and Environment (WEFE) sectors have intensified in recent years, emphasizing that purely sectoral approaches or traditional silo models cannot lead to sustainable solutions. Growing demand for resources creates trade-offs, further complicated by climate change impact. The WEFE Nexus approach is a powerful concept for addressing the interrelationships of resource systems and moving towards better coordination and utilisation of natural resources, considering existing trade-offs and moving towards synergies. However, progress in terms of incorporating Nexus thinking in practical policymaking has been limited.
This issue is critical for society as it directly influences strategic sectors such as agriculture, energy and environmental sustainability. For example, competition over shared water and land resources between agriculture and the energy industry exemplifies the pressing need for holistic strategies. Agriculture ensures food security and supports socio-economic sustainability, while energy is vital for economic growth. Access to energy is a key factor for economic development. In essence, political strategies must address the interdependency between the nexus domains with the adequate and sustainable management of resources.
The REXUS Project bridged the gap between science and policy by advancing the transition from Nexus Thinking to Nexus Doing. It developed innovative tools and integrated visions to analyse real-world challenges, including frictions and climate risks. Systems Dynamic Modelling (SDM) was employed to design sustainable, forward-looking solutions, integrating extensive datasets (e.g. Earth Observing data, soil, climate, crops) and stakeholders insights.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

During the REXUS project, substantial efforts were dedicated to establishing a high participation level of stakeholders (Water Managers, Policymakers, Farmers, Energy producers and distributors, Consultants, Scientifics, Technicians, ...) in the five pilot areas, Nima-Cauca sub-basin in Colombia, the Pinios River Basin in Greece, the Peninsular Spanish area, the Lower Danube area, and the transboundary Isonzo/Soča river basin between Italy and Slovenia. In parallel, the main laws and regulations concerning the management of water, energy, food/agricultural sector as well as the main bodies relevant for decision-making in these areas have been identified. On the other hand, the more salient structures governing the nexus problems from an integrative perspective have also been mapped. The main international and regional instruments relevant for the management of water, energy, and food, have been identified to address the nexus issues in an integrative manner. This material provided the ground for the analysis on the adequacy of current governance structures to mainstream nexus approaches.
The REXUS Observatory provides an interface to share data between the consortium in a way that they feed the Participatory System Dynamics Models and Nature Based Solutions proposed in each pilot area. It includes a complete study of climate projections mapping and climate risk assessment; the energy and carbon footprint methodology development and applied in the Nima watershed; the Land Use mapping for Peninsular Spain and developing the methodology for Land Use suitability for the main crops in the study areas; the water accounting and footprint methodology and application to Jucar Basin Area (sub-pilot in Peninsular Spain) and Pinios; and a selection of socioeconomic indicators for nexus systems in all pilots.
Causal Loop Diagrams specific to each pilot area captured the complexity of interconnections, guiding the co-creation of Nature-Based Solutions (NbS). A roadmap for decision-makers at various levels was developed to mainstream NbS under the WEFE Nexus perspective.
Main Results:

• Integration of participatory models and data-driven tools.
• Development of climate and resource flow scenarios for pilot areas.
• Implementation of NbS and resilience-building strategies tailored to regional contexts.
• Dissemination of findings through policy recommendations, stakeholder workshops, regional meetings and scientific publications.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

REXUS goes beyond the state of the art in many ways, with innovations that support each other in their effectiveness and impact. The most prominent examples are:
REXUS LAAs are integrating discussion and knowledge sharing activities with a structured visioning process that concludes in the elaboration of transition roadmaps for the management and operationalisation of the WEFE nexus. Matching Participatory Systems Dynamics Models (PSDM) with LAAs is an innovation that will support a collective definition of system characteristics, dynamics and boundaries, integrate different forms of knowledge and data, and operate both at a qualitative / conceptual level (e.g. through the use Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Causal Loop Diagrams) and at a quantitative level (e.g. through stock and flow models and using SD as a ‘meta-model’). Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) in REXUS provided the methodological and practical foundations for the selection of suites of solutions that use EbA as an underlying principle, which has been implemented/applied in pilot areas. REXUS explores multiple ways in which Nexus operational management can be progressed through innovative use of EO. Novel energy and water accounting and footprint estimation methods based on dense time series of high spatial resolution images have provided timely and easy-to-use maps of crop growth, water requirements and consumption, ( with embedded energy and yield forecast)

REXUS allowed for more accurate evaluations of future demands for WEFE and related infrastructures, at local, transboundary and global scales.
REXUS also enhanced sharing knowledge and best practices in climate-water-energy-food nexus assessment and management and helped create a critical mass on capacity to innovate.
REXUS improved integrated water resources management and increased resilience to climate change, considering the value of water for ecosystems and their services and ensuring good quantitative and qualitative status of water, sustainable agriculture, food and energy production, as well as water, food and energy security.
REXUS enabled the co-design of resilience-enhancing solutions that reduce water risks for a range of future Energy Mix scenarios within (i) combined climate risk assessment, (ii) coupled resource flow analysis and (iii) adaptation strategies.
With the support of PSDM, REXUS enabled evidence-based multi-objective policy design, which helped aligning overarching policies in distinct domains. REXUS attempted to establish and mainstream a strong link between climate adaptation (NDCs of the Paris Agreement) and Nexus management. Moreover, the proposed EbA is a recognized, suitable vehicle to greening the CAP.
REXUS contributed to reducing institutional fragmentation whilst increasing cross water, energy, food collaboration and inclusive multistakeholder engagement by using a specifically designed LAA process.
By broadening the scope of water diplomacy to include Nexus considerations, REXUS supported the development of “diplomatic” instruments and mitigate conflicts through cooperation and promoted regional stability (from local to transboundary), and gave the EU the tools required to develop leadership in this field.

The partners and stakeholders during the Plenary Meeting in the Water Center in Albacete