Periodic Reporting for period 1 - NDC ASPECTS (Assessing Sectoral Perspectives on Climate Transitions to support the Global Stocktake and subsequent NDCs)
Période du rapport: 2021-05-01 au 2022-10-31
One of the key features of the Paris Agreement (PA) for responding to climate change is the five-yearly Global Stocktake (GST). The purpose of the GST is to review the implementation of the PA in order to assess the collective progress towards achieving the purpose of the PA and its long-term goals. The outcome of the GST shall inform the PA's Parties in updating and enhancing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
NDC ASPECTS will provide inputs to the GST and support the potential and gender-responsive revision of existing NDCs, as well as the development of new NDCs for the post-2030 period. The project will particularly focus on four sectoral systems that are highly relevant in terms of the greenhouse gas emissions they produce yet have thus far made only limited progress in decarbonization. These sectors are transport and mobility (land-based transport and international aviation & shipping), emission-intensive industries, buildings, and agriculture, forestry, and land-use, including their supply by and interaction with the energy conversion sector.
For each of those sectors, NDC ASPECTS will undertake “Sectoral Conversations” to co-create gender-responsive, evidence-based narratives with sectoral experts and stakeholders, drawing on the consortium’s extensive networks. These narratives will then be translated into global pathways informing the GST as well as national pathways for strategically selected countries for each of the four sectors. As an input to the Sectoral Conversations, the project will systematically assess transformation challenges and opportunities (related to societal welfare and care, public and market economy, political and institutional configurations, societal gender and nature relationships, technology innovation and diffusion, as well as capacity and awareness), taking into account experiences with the implementation of the first round of NDCs as well as model-based quantitative analyses. Additionally, NDC ASPECTS will identify ways and means to improve international governance to enable and facilitate sectoral transformations towards climate neutrality and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.
NDC ASPECTS will provide inputs to the GST and support the potential and gender-responsive revision of existing NDCs, as well as the development of new NDCs for the post-2030 period. The project will particularly focus on four sectoral systems that are highly relevant in terms of the greenhouse gas emissions they produce yet have thus far made only limited progress in decarbonization. These sectors are transport and mobility (land-based transport and international aviation & shipping), emission-intensive industries, buildings, and agriculture, forestry, and land-use, including their supply by and interaction with the energy conversion sector.
For each of those sectors, NDC ASPECTS will undertake “Sectoral Conversations” to co-create gender-responsive, evidence-based narratives with sectoral experts and stakeholders, drawing on the consortium’s extensive networks. These narratives will then be translated into global pathways informing the GST as well as national pathways for strategically selected countries for each of the four sectors. As an input to the Sectoral Conversations, the project will systematically assess transformation challenges and opportunities (related to societal welfare and care, public and market economy, political and institutional configurations, societal gender and nature relationships, technology innovation and diffusion, as well as capacity and awareness), taking into account experiences with the implementation of the first round of NDCs as well as model-based quantitative analyses. Additionally, NDC ASPECTS will identify ways and means to improve international governance to enable and facilitate sectoral transformations towards climate neutrality and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.
The NDC ASPECTS Project has quickly set up a working structure and completed conceptual and theoretical groundwork in the first few months of the project. The Sectoral Conversations were initiated successfully in all four sectors. After the first 18 months of the project the first empirical and model-based results have also been published:
- Two international bunker fuel models, for the maritime and aviation sectors, have been developed tand used tohat can assess the potential contribution of the sectors to meet deep decarbonization goals such as those of the Paris Agreement objectives. These models are linked to the PROMETHEUS global energy system model with endogenization of the emission reduction options in the sectors in order to investigate deep decarbonisation pathways and strategies for the inter- national shipping and aviation sectors . This work has resulted in an article accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
- Two complementary analyses on national climate change mitigation pledges (NDCs) were completed. The first focuses on determinants of ambition in updated NDCs. The second highlights risk factors for successful implementation of NDCs.
- The global climate governance landscape was mapped in great detail for the four sectors industry, transport, buildings and AFOLU. For each of those sectors governance gaps were identified and recommendations developed on how to address those gaps to further strengthen the global enabling environment for sectoral transformations.
- A submission was prepared for the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement proposing sectoral benchmarks for subsequent NDCs and highlighting sectoral perspectives as a means to ensure the effectiveness of the Global Stocktake towards enhancing NDC ambition and international cooperation.
- In a commentary in the leading journal Nature Climate Change, a transnational climate club for the steel industry was proposed. This proposal resonated strongly in the academic and political debate in the run-up and aftermath of the G7 summit in Elmau, Germany, in which the G7 agreed to establish a climate club, the form of which is yet to be determined.
- Two international bunker fuel models, for the maritime and aviation sectors, have been developed tand used tohat can assess the potential contribution of the sectors to meet deep decarbonization goals such as those of the Paris Agreement objectives. These models are linked to the PROMETHEUS global energy system model with endogenization of the emission reduction options in the sectors in order to investigate deep decarbonisation pathways and strategies for the inter- national shipping and aviation sectors . This work has resulted in an article accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
- Two complementary analyses on national climate change mitigation pledges (NDCs) were completed. The first focuses on determinants of ambition in updated NDCs. The second highlights risk factors for successful implementation of NDCs.
- The global climate governance landscape was mapped in great detail for the four sectors industry, transport, buildings and AFOLU. For each of those sectors governance gaps were identified and recommendations developed on how to address those gaps to further strengthen the global enabling environment for sectoral transformations.
- A submission was prepared for the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement proposing sectoral benchmarks for subsequent NDCs and highlighting sectoral perspectives as a means to ensure the effectiveness of the Global Stocktake towards enhancing NDC ambition and international cooperation.
- In a commentary in the leading journal Nature Climate Change, a transnational climate club for the steel industry was proposed. This proposal resonated strongly in the academic and political debate in the run-up and aftermath of the G7 summit in Elmau, Germany, in which the G7 agreed to establish a climate club, the form of which is yet to be determined.
The project will systematically analyse transformation challenges and opportunities in the four selected sectors (including transport, buildings, energy-intensive industries and AFOLU). This will lead to improved modelling capabilities both at the global level as well as within key countries. Applying those models and developing corresponding national pathways will provide scientific underpinning for the development of subsequent more ambitious NDCs and long-term low-emission strategies.
Moreover, the analysis shall help to identify policy and governance levers for advancing the transformation of the four key sectors. This includes policies at the national level as well as global governance arrangements both within the UNFCCC regime and beyond.
Moreover, the analysis shall help to identify policy and governance levers for advancing the transformation of the four key sectors. This includes policies at the national level as well as global governance arrangements both within the UNFCCC regime and beyond.