A Multi-Theory Multi-Method Approach for Preventing and Reducing Radicalization leading to Violence

Project Information

MULTIPREV

Grant agreement ID: 101018172

DOI

10.3030/101018172

EC signature date 19 November 2021

Start date 1 January 2022

End date 31 December 2027

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 2 499 900,00

EU contribution

€ 2 499 900,00

Coordinated by

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE EDUCACION A DISTANCIA
Spain

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - MULTIPREV (A Multi-Theory Multi-Method Approach for Preventing and Reducing Radicalization leading to Violence)

Reporting period: 2023-07-01 to 2024-12-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The period 2020-2030 is the UN Decade of Action and its top priority is fighting violent extremism. This call roots in the insufficient progress despite the efforts from governments and scholars to tackle this issue. The main shortcomings of previous approaches are theoretical, empirical, and methodological.
This project (MULTIPREV) introduces, and tests empirically, the first multi-theoretical multi- method framework for the study of radicalization leading to violence to provide insights to develop intervention programs for prevention and disengagement, and to assess the risk of radicalization leading to violence. The tasks are distributed in four Work Packages (WPs). WP1 focuses on the development of a multi-theory model. WP2 examines the underlying mechanisms of radicalization leading to violence through online cross-sectional and longitudinal studies in countries of the five continents and develops an innovative methodology to assess these processes. WP3 inspects these mechanisms outside and inside prisons in 10 nations with individuals at different stages of radicalization. WP4 is on the development of evidence-based interventions. An additional WP5 expands the goals and scope of MULTIPREV by examining the psychosocial processes and mechanisms that drive members of law enforcement agencies to engage in extreme acts on behalf of groups, values, and leaders.
The contribution of this project is twofold: a) improve the scientific understanding of violent extremism, and b) provide novel evidence-based strategies and tools to develop intervention programs and to predict and prevent violent extremism.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

(1) Thirty-one studies to identify the transcultural pathways to the will to fight applied to groups, values, and leaders (ref. of the publication: Gómez, Vázquez & Atran, 2023).
(2) Identification of the main barriers to investigate violent radicalization, and potential strategies to solve them (Gómez et al., 2023).
(3) A meta-analysis supporting the powerful capacity of identity fusion to predict extreme behavior (Varmann et al., 2023).
(4) A review of the role of identity fusion in violent extremism as compared to other theoretical approaches (Gómez, Vázquez, Blanco et al., 2024).
(5) Transcription of proven facts plus verdicts of individuals who were condemned because of jihadist terrorism to identify the mechanism related to radicalization leading to violence.
(6) A review examining the role of exclusion on radicalization leading to violence and its effects for WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic) versus non-WEIRD populations (Chinchilla & Gómez, 2024).
(7) Identification of the relevance of exploring the role of strong connection to groups, values and leaders on radicalization leading to violence (Gómez, Vázquez, Alba et al., 2024; Swann et al., 2024).
(8) A systematic review of the role of psychological time in the study of violent radicalization, deradicalization and disengagement (Chinchilla & Gómez, 2024).
(9) Development of new dynamic measures and vignettes.
(10) Six online cross-sectional studies including 20, 18, 14, 15, 19, and 14 countries respectively and one longitudinal study in 18 countries.
(11) Sri Lanka: 130 face-to-face interviews with former LTTE, 50 face-to-face interviews with imprisoned members of the LTTE, and 50 face-to-face interviews with Islamist terrorists.
(12) Colombia: 600 face-to-face interviews with former FARC-EP members affiliated to four associations: FUCEPAZ, Federación de Economía Solidaria Efraín Guzmán, COOMPAZCOL, and COOPERPAZCE, and 1000 interviews with members of the National Police.
(13) Indonesia: 200 interviews with Islamist extremists imprisoned in several regions of Indonesia.
(14) Palestine: 1000 interviews with individuals under risk of radicalization.
(15) Spain: > 3000 interviews with members of the Civil Guard.
(16) Development of a tool to assess the risk of radicalization, the DRAVY-3 (González-Álvarez et al., 2022).
(17) Evaluation of the program used for disengagement of individuals at risk of engaging in criminal Islamist extremist actions after prison release in Spain (DALIL).

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Progress beyond the state of the art:
(1) a useful guide to ease the main barriers to investigate violent radicalization and strategies to solve them;
(2) a meta-analysis indicating the power of identity fusion as a predictor of extreme behavior;
(3) a linear model that disentangles the transcultural pathways to the will to fight useful for explaining extreme behaviors for groups, individuals and values;
(4) a preliminary empirical test showing how our findings can be applied to develop new tools to assess the risk of violent radicalization in prisons;
(5) an exhaustive review to understand the exclusion-extremism link in non-WEIRD populations;
(6) a theoretical and empirically based model including online studies and fieldwork in prisons to understand the causes of the main predictor of radical intentions (identity fusion), as it is self- verification (feeling understood), that can be applied to extreme behaviors on behalf of groups, leaders and values;
(7) a comprehensive analysis of the role of identity fusion in violent extremism, including all the mediators and moderators identified up to now, and as compared to alternative predictors of extreme behavior;
(8) an updated comprehensive identity fusion theory (CIFT) that represents a revision of the original identity fusion theory (OIFT) including all the progresses achieved by the theory during its fifteen years of existence.

Expected results:
(1) a systematic review on the role of meta perception in the study of radicalization, deradicalization and disengagement;
(2) three manuscripts with the information obtained from the files of jihadists;
(3) validate and publish new measures of vignettes;
(4) to examine the role played by focal variables in the processes of radicalization leading to violence across cultures; its temporal stability, and its role at different degrees of radicalization;
(5) to experimentally manipulate those variables appropriated for preventing radicalization leading to violence, or for fostering disengagement;
(6) to develop an evidence-based instrument for the assessment of risk and protective factors for Islamist radicalization among inmates;
(7) to develop tools to assess the risk of violent actions related to membership in criminal gangs, programs of intervention, and evaluations of the intervention programs implemented in prison;
(8) to develop an intervention program for the prevention of violent radicalization within the prisons.

Examples of measures with Vignettes

MULTIPREV Map