Periodic Reporting for period 1 - MULTIPREV (A Multi-Theory Multi-Method Approach for Preventing and Reducing Radicalization leading to Violence)
Berichtszeitraum: 2022-01-01 bis 2023-06-30
2020-2030 is the UN Decade of Action and its top priority is fighting violent extremism. This call roots in the insufficient progress despite the efforts from Governments and scholars to tackle this issue. The main shortcomings of previous approaches are theoretical, empirical, and methodological.
This project introduces, and tests empirically, the first multi-theoretical multi-method framework for the study of radicalization leading to violence to provide insights to develop intervention programs and to assess the risk of radicalization leading to violence. The tasks of this project are distributed in four Work Packages. WP1 focuses on the development of a multi-theory model. WP2 is on the development of an innovative methodology to assess these processes. WP3 will examine the mechanisms underlying radicalization outside and inside prisons in 10 nations. WP4 is on the development of evidence-based interventions. The contribution of this project is twofold: a) improve the scientific understanding of violent extremism, and b) provide novel evidence-based strategies and tools to develop intervention programs and to predict and prevent violent extremism.
This project introduces, and tests empirically, the first multi-theoretical multi-method framework for the study of radicalization leading to violence to provide insights to develop intervention programs and to assess the risk of radicalization leading to violence. The tasks of this project are distributed in four Work Packages. WP1 focuses on the development of a multi-theory model. WP2 is on the development of an innovative methodology to assess these processes. WP3 will examine the mechanisms underlying radicalization outside and inside prisons in 10 nations. WP4 is on the development of evidence-based interventions. The contribution of this project is twofold: a) improve the scientific understanding of violent extremism, and b) provide novel evidence-based strategies and tools to develop intervention programs and to predict and prevent violent extremism.
In WP1, the first aim was to develop an initial theoretical model. The research team led a dozen of studies that deepen in two processes that emerged from previous field experience: (1) perceived spiritual formidability - the conviction and non-material resources including values, strength of beliefs, and character-; and (2) trust. The results were published introducing a model about transcultural pathways to the will to fight, and where fusion predicts self-sacrifice for a group, leader, or value through perceived spiritual formidability of the target of fusion first, and trust in such target second (Gómez, Vázquez & Atran, 2023). The research team has published two more articles: one with barriers justifying why it is so difficult to investigate violent radicalization, and with strategies to solve them (Gómez et al., 2023), and another with a meta-analysis supporting the powerful capacity of identity fusion -a visceral feeling of oneness between the personal identity and a target - to predict extreme behavior (Varmaan et al., 2023).
The second goal was to analyze the narratives of jihadists imprisoned in Spanish prisons to develop instruments to be used during the project. The research team has accessed the files of all the convicted of jihadists terrorism in Spain. The preliminary analyses have provided measures that were tested in online studies in Spain, and a draft of the questionnaires to be used in the subsequent studies.
The third goal was to make progress on a final theoretical model. For now, we have made progresses in the project framing in two ways. First, we have decided to examine the role of exclusion on radicalization leading to violence and its effects for WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic) versus non-WEIRD populations. Second, we will explore independently, but also interactively, the role of strong connection to groups, values and leaders on radicalization leading to violence.
In WP2, and with the support of previous findings, the first goal was to develop new measures to assess processes related to radicalization leading to violence. At this point, we have developed a dozen of measures based on a series of vignettes to be tested and that will later be converted into dynamic measures.
The second goal was to conduct a cross-cultural correlational test of the initial theoretical model and platform. The original idea was a large longitudinal study in 3 waves in no less than 20 countries. However, the preliminary results of the qualitative analyses, the results of the first series of online studies, and the pilot interviews to former terrorists in two countries gave insights for testing so many measures that would make it impossible to test all of them in a single study. Also, the previous results call for preparing different studies considering three fundamental targets of fusion: groups, values, and leaders. Thus, after several months establishing collaborative relation with scholars worldwide, we are currently conducting six cross-sectional online studies and a two-wave longitudinal study. Forty countries from the 5 continents are currently active in this task (see Figure).
WP3 aimed at the empirical exploration of radicalization and deradicalization. We planned to collect field data with former terrorists, actual terrorists, and participants under risk of radicalization. Therefore, two researchers travelled to Sri Lanka and Indonesia to meet the collaborators who will be responsible for data collection in each country with former LTTE and ISIS members, and with members of ISIS and Jemaah Islamiyah in prisons and to organize the fieldwork. Two researchers will travel to Colombia in September for the same reason and to collect data with ex-FARC members. The start of the data collection for these three sites is expected by October-November.
Finally, the aim of WP4 was to develop a tool for assessing the risk of radicalization in prison, and intervention programs. Although this task is the goal of the last project year, the PI has already collaborated with the Spanish Government in the creation of an instrument to assess the risk of violent jihadist radicalization in prisons: the DRAVY-3 (González-Álvarez et al., 2022), has advised and cooperated in an intervention program, training of the staff, and in the evaluation of a program to prevent radicalization leading to violence and improve intercultural relations.
The second goal was to analyze the narratives of jihadists imprisoned in Spanish prisons to develop instruments to be used during the project. The research team has accessed the files of all the convicted of jihadists terrorism in Spain. The preliminary analyses have provided measures that were tested in online studies in Spain, and a draft of the questionnaires to be used in the subsequent studies.
The third goal was to make progress on a final theoretical model. For now, we have made progresses in the project framing in two ways. First, we have decided to examine the role of exclusion on radicalization leading to violence and its effects for WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic) versus non-WEIRD populations. Second, we will explore independently, but also interactively, the role of strong connection to groups, values and leaders on radicalization leading to violence.
In WP2, and with the support of previous findings, the first goal was to develop new measures to assess processes related to radicalization leading to violence. At this point, we have developed a dozen of measures based on a series of vignettes to be tested and that will later be converted into dynamic measures.
The second goal was to conduct a cross-cultural correlational test of the initial theoretical model and platform. The original idea was a large longitudinal study in 3 waves in no less than 20 countries. However, the preliminary results of the qualitative analyses, the results of the first series of online studies, and the pilot interviews to former terrorists in two countries gave insights for testing so many measures that would make it impossible to test all of them in a single study. Also, the previous results call for preparing different studies considering three fundamental targets of fusion: groups, values, and leaders. Thus, after several months establishing collaborative relation with scholars worldwide, we are currently conducting six cross-sectional online studies and a two-wave longitudinal study. Forty countries from the 5 continents are currently active in this task (see Figure).
WP3 aimed at the empirical exploration of radicalization and deradicalization. We planned to collect field data with former terrorists, actual terrorists, and participants under risk of radicalization. Therefore, two researchers travelled to Sri Lanka and Indonesia to meet the collaborators who will be responsible for data collection in each country with former LTTE and ISIS members, and with members of ISIS and Jemaah Islamiyah in prisons and to organize the fieldwork. Two researchers will travel to Colombia in September for the same reason and to collect data with ex-FARC members. The start of the data collection for these three sites is expected by October-November.
Finally, the aim of WP4 was to develop a tool for assessing the risk of radicalization in prison, and intervention programs. Although this task is the goal of the last project year, the PI has already collaborated with the Spanish Government in the creation of an instrument to assess the risk of violent jihadist radicalization in prisons: the DRAVY-3 (González-Álvarez et al., 2022), has advised and cooperated in an intervention program, training of the staff, and in the evaluation of a program to prevent radicalization leading to violence and improve intercultural relations.
So far, we have provided a series of contributions as follows: (1) a useful guide to ease the main barriers to investigate violent radicalization and strategies to solve them (Gómez et al., 2023), (2) a statistically-based demonstration -meta-analyses- indicating the power of fusion as predictor of extreme behavior (Varmaan et al., 2023); (3) a linear model that disentangles the transcultural pathways to the will to fight useful for explaining extreme behaviors for groups, individuals and values (Gómez et al., 2023); and (4) a preliminary empirical test showing how our findings can be applied to develop new tools to assess the risk of violent radicalization in prisons (González-Álvarez et al., 2022).
The main tasks for the next 18 months are to collect empirical data online (transcultural) and in the field with former terrorists, current terrorists in prisons, and individuals under risk of radicalization. All findings will help to develop new tools to assess the risk of radicalization leading to violence, and programs of intervention.
The potential impact of this project has already been recognized in different ways. E.g. the dissemination strategies have caught the attention of organizations interested in a direct collaboration in this project. At this point, we are managing the inclusion of more samples of interest, as former and current terrorists in the Philippines, combatants -militaries- who fought against FARC members in Colombia, and members of the security services and special Corps of the Civil Guard in Spain.
The main tasks for the next 18 months are to collect empirical data online (transcultural) and in the field with former terrorists, current terrorists in prisons, and individuals under risk of radicalization. All findings will help to develop new tools to assess the risk of radicalization leading to violence, and programs of intervention.
The potential impact of this project has already been recognized in different ways. E.g. the dissemination strategies have caught the attention of organizations interested in a direct collaboration in this project. At this point, we are managing the inclusion of more samples of interest, as former and current terrorists in the Philippines, combatants -militaries- who fought against FARC members in Colombia, and members of the security services and special Corps of the Civil Guard in Spain.