Arctic Regime Adaptation to Great Power Competition: The Security Dimension

Project Information

ARA

Grant agreement ID: 101026897

DOI

10.3030/101026897

Project closed

EC signature date 23 April 2021

Start date 1 September 2022

End date 20 July 2025

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Total cost

€ 202 158,72

EU contribution

€ 202 158,72

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITETET I TROMSOE - NORGES ARKTISKE UNIVERSITET
Norway

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ARA (Arctic Regime Adaptation to Great Power Competition: The Security Dimension)

Reporting period: 2022-09-01 to 2024-08-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The Arctic experiences the acute effects of shifts in the global power balance. Competition involves the United States, Russia, and China, and the outcome will be pivotal for Arctic cooperation, particularly in its security dimension. The ARA project examined how power politics influences the stability and transformation of international regimes. As the Arctic affects global security, climate, and governance, the outcomes of international regime transformation shape broader patterns of international cooperation or rivalry.
The overall objective of ARA was to understand the interplay between the shifting power balance and international regime resilience, outlining a model for Arctic regime adaptation. By the end of the project, the key conclusions show that (1) core norms of international regimes provide a power asset for key actors, and (2) sources of leverage within regimes are insufficiently theorised and therefore systematically underestimated. These findings are central to explaining why institutions may remain resilient even under major power rivalry, providing a basis for both scholarly theory-building and informed policy debate.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

Between 2022 and 2025, the project developed a new realist outlook for understanding the role of norms in international regimes within great-power competition and explored the leadership pattern resulting in a non-accommodation strategy. These insights help explain overlooked reasons for institutional resilience.
The research combined political analysis with corpus linguistics. The project developed Python tools and multilingual corpora that can support future research on international politics. Results have been shared through peer-reviewed journal articles, a forthcoming edited book, conference presentations, and outreach activities such as a policy brief. These outputs are being exploited through academic publications, teaching activities, and open dissemination (repository deposits, policy brief circulation, and conference presentations).

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The ARA project moves beyond existing studies by enhancing realist understandings of regime dynamics during power transitions. It reveals conditions under which international regimes continue to function, and identifies similar patterns in other contested international regimes.
Results are being disseminated through peer-reviewed articles, a forthcoming Springer edited volume, conference presentations, and a policy brief for decision-makers. The multilingual corpora and Python tools developed will also be available for future research, enabling further analysis of great-power relations in the Arctic and beyond.
The impacts extend beyond academia. The results provide insights for researchers, students, and policy-makers, and contribute to more informed European and global debate on Arctic governance and great-power diplomacy. The project strengthens Europe’s role in Arctic research and supports informed decision-making in the face of great-power competition.

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