Project description
Better climate models help predict extreme precipitation across Europe
Extreme precipitation events are among the most damaging climate phenomena worldwide. The EU-funded UMBRELLE project will characterise their evolution over the 21st century in Europe to provide more reliable projected changes by increasing our understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible. The initiative will conduct innovative modelling experiments to investigate how observed extreme precipitation case studies could respond to climate change and what mechanisms control future changes. High-spatial convection-permitting regional climate modelling will be used to simulate extreme precipitation events and combined with different emerging scenarios to identify possible future regional atmospheric circulation from a large selection of state-of-the-art Earth system models. The results will dramatically increase knowledge and reduce uncertainties regarding the regional impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation.
Objective
Extreme precipitation events are among the most damaging climate extremes worldwide. Globally, precipitation extremes are expected to intensify as the climate warms, however, Europe stands out as a region with weak confidence in future extreme precipitation changes. Our lack of knowledge is explained by the variety of mechanisms at play, from local to hemispheric scales, and by two persisting limitations: the deep convection not explicitly resolved in climate models and large uncertainties in future regional atmospheric circulation changes.
UMBRELLE aims to characterise the evolution of precipitation extremes over the 21st century in Europe and to provide more reliable projected changes by better understanding the physical mechanisms at play. Innovative modelling experiments are proposed to explore how observed extreme precipitation case studies could respond to climate change and what mechanisms control the future changes. To that end, novel data, tools and methods will be exploited through the use of high-spatial convection-permitting regional climate modelling for the realistic simulation of extreme precipitation that will be combined with the emergent ‘storylines’ approach to identify plausible future pathways for regional atmospheric circulation from a large ensemble of state-of-the-art Earth System Models.
The original framework offered by UMBRELLE will allow a leap in our understanding of the regional impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. It directly addresses each of the two current limitations in our knowledge and provides an innovative way to bridge the gap between the fine scale explicit simulation of precipitation and the most comprehensive simulation of the climate system in order to benefit from their respective strengths and latest advances. This project proposes ambitious research that will not only address one of the most pressing issues affecting the global research community but will be of profound societal benefit.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences atmospheric sciences meteorology atmospheric circulation
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences atmospheric sciences climatology climatic changes
- natural sciences computer and information sciences software software applications simulation software
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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H2020-EU.1.3. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
MAIN PROGRAMME
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H2020-EU.1.3.2. - Nurturing excellence by means of cross-border and cross-sector mobility
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) H2020-MSCA-IF-2020
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
75794 PARIS
France
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.