Democracy Support Practice After the Third Wave: Adapting to Change?

Informations projet

DemSupPra

N° de convention de subvention: 101030949

DOI

10.3030/101030949

Date de signature de la CE 15 Avril 2021

Date de début 15 Janvier 2023

Date de fin 17 Avril 2027

Financé au titre de

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Coût total

€ 269 002,56

Contribution de l’UE

€ 269 002,56

Coordonné par

UNIVERSITA CA' FOSCARI VENEZIA
Italy

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - DemSupPra (Democracy Support Practice After the Third Wave: Adapting to Change?)

Période du rapport: 2023-01-15 au 2025-01-14

Résumé du contexte et des objectifs généraux du projet

DemSupPra (Democracy Support Practices) examines how international election observation is being reshaped by changes in the global democratic landscape, and whether it remains fit for purpose amid contemporary challenges to electoral integrity. Elections are a cornerstone of democratic governance, yet increasingly sites of contestation, manipulation and democratic backsliding. These trends affect not only emerging and hybrid regimes, but also established democracies, including parts of the European Union.

The core problem addressed by DemSupPra is the widening gap between contemporary threats to electoral integrity and the tools used by international observers to assess them. This matters because elections underpin democratic legitimacy, political representation and public trust. When manipulated elections are nonetheless declared credible, democratic erosion can proceed unchecked. The project therefore evaluates whether election observation remains fit for purpose, analyses how observer organisations have adapted to new challenges, and identifies ways to strengthen the credibility and effectiveness of observation and related policy responses.

Since the end of the Cold War, international election observation has become a global norm and a key instrument of democracy support. Observer missions assess elections against internationally recognised standards and communicate findings to domestic authorities, international partners and the public. These assessments shape diplomatic engagement and inform election assistance, such as technical support and institutional reform. However, many observation standards and methodologies were developed for political and technological contexts that differ significantly from those of today.

The project focuses on three interrelated developments linked to contemporary “crises of democracy”: (1) rapid technological change affecting electoral administration, campaigning, and information environments; (2) the strategic adaptation of authoritarian and hybrid regimes through subtle and formally legal manipulation that preserves democratic appearances; and (3) rising populism, extreme polarisation and hyper-partisanship, which have turned elections into high-stakes contests and, in some cases, tools of democratic erosion.

Overall, DemSupPra analyses how these developments affect election observation practices, examines how observer organisations have adapted their mandates and methodologies, and evaluates the credibility and effectiveness of these adaptations. By treating election observation as the core democracy support practice, the project identifies gaps, blind spots, and opportunities for strengthening electoral integrity, and consolidates these findings into policy-relevant conclusions for practitioners and policymakers.

Travail effectué depuis le début du projet jusqu’à la fin de la période considérée dans le rapport et principaux résultats atteints jusqu’à présent

From the start of the project to the end of the current reporting period, DemSupPra has focused on developing and applying a practice-oriented analytical framework to examine international election observation and its responses to new challenges.

Following an initial conceptual and literature review, exploratory work assessed the feasibility of constructing a large-scale quantitative dataset based on observation reports. This showed that systematic cross-organisational coding at the envisaged scale was not methodologically robust, due to wide variation in reporting formats, mandates, levels of detail and publication practices across organisations over time. The research design was therefore refined to prioritise in-depth qualitative and comparative analysis, better suited to capturing subtle electoral manipulation and organisational adaptation.

The project subsequently identified ten (plus spares) methodologically selected election observation organisations representing different institutional types and regional mandates. For each organisation, core methodological documents, observation guidelines and selected mission reports were analysed to assess how challenges such as technological change, pre-election manipulation and polarisation are addressed in practice.

In parallel, qualitative fieldwork was undertaken. During the reporting period, some 32 (of 50 planned) semi-structured interviews were conducted with senior decision-makers, methodologists and experienced practitioners, focusing on mandate interpretation, methodological adaptation, reporting practices and engagement with polarised environments. Access was supported by the researcher’s extensive practitioner experience and professional networks.

Preliminary findings reveal substantial variation across organisations in mandate interpretation, particularly regarding pre-election conditions, digital environments and legally compliant forms of manipulation. While some organisations have adapted their practices, others remain constrained by narrow procedural frameworks or political sensitivities. These insights have informed internal presentations and targeted discussions with practitioner audiences, contributing to ongoing refinement of the analytical framework.

Dissemination activities included three presentations to academic and think-tank audiences, targeted engagement with practitioner networks, and participation in academic seminars and workshops. Initial findings have also been shared informally with policymakers and practitioners to gather feedback and further refine the project’s analytical focus.

Progrès au-delà de l’état des connaissances et impact potentiel prévu (y compris l’impact socio-économique et les conséquences sociétales plus larges du projet jusqu’à présent)

DemSupPra goes beyond the state of the art in several important ways. Existing research on election observation often focuses on normative effectiveness or isolated cases of electoral malpractice. In contrast, this project systematically examines how contemporary democratic challenges affect election observation practices across organisations, regions and time. By combining in-depth qualitative and comparative research, DemSupPra moves beyond anecdotal assessments to deliver a practice-oriented understanding of election observation.

A key innovation is treating election observation as a dynamic practice that evolves in response to political and technological change, rather than as a static set of standards. The project further advances the literature by analysing subtle and formally legal forms of manipulation that are difficult to capture with traditional tools, while integrating gender dimensions and regional variation.

By the end of the project, expected results include a consolidated comparative assessment of how international election observation has adapted to contemporary challenges, identification of persistent gaps and blind spots, and a set of concrete, evidence-based recommendations for observer organisations and policymakers. These results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, policy briefs, public events and targeted engagement with practitioner communities.

The project’s potential impacts are both societal and policy-relevant. By strengthening the credibility and effectiveness of election observation, DemSupPra contributes to safeguarding electoral integrity, democratic legitimacy and public trust in political institutions. The findings are particularly relevant for the European Union, given its role in international election observation and democracy support. Over the longer term, improved observation practices can enhance downstream election assistance, support more resilient democratic institutions and help counter democratic erosion across diverse political contexts.

Eye on the eyes