ATTributing heAt-related excess mortality and morbidity to Climate cHange

Informations projet

ATTACH

N° de convention de subvention: 101032087

DOI

10.3030/101032087

Projet clôturé le 16 Août 2024

Date de signature de la CE 9 Mars 2021

Date de début 1 Octobre 2021

Date de fin 15 Octobre 2024

Financé au titre de

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Coût total

€ 174 806,40

Contribution de l’UE

€ 174 806,40

Coordonné par

LUDWIG-MAXIMILIANS-UNIVERSITAET MUENCHEN
Germany

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ATTACH (ATTributing heAt-related excess mortality and morbidity to Climate cHange)

Période du rapport: 2021-10-01 au 2023-09-30

Résumé du contexte et des objectifs généraux du projet

Climate change is known to affect deaths and hospitalizations associated with heat exposure in Europe. Yet, despite a broad scientific knowledge base on the future impacts of climate change, few studies so far have formally attributed heat-related mortality and morbidity to climate change that has already occurred over the past century. The project ATTACH contributed to the closing of this important research gap, with a special focus on recent European heatwaves. The project made use of death count statistics from major cities and all federal states in Germany, and combined state-of-the-art epidemiological methods with an innovative approach to climate impact attribution.

One important conclusion from the work performed is that monitoring systems based on weekly data considerably underestimate heat-related excess mortality compared to analyses based on daily death count data. Accurately measuring heat-related excess mortality is important for the evaluation of adaptation measures adopted, such as heat-health action plans or early warning systems. As such the project also contributed to the implementation of the EU Climate Adaptation Strategy, which requires adaptation actions to rely on robust data and risk assessment tools.

The project also showed that human-caused climate change increasingly affects heat-related excess mortality in Germany. These results can contribute to rising the awareness about climate change in the general population, and may also serve as arguments in future climate litigation cases.

Travail effectué depuis le début du projet jusqu’à la fin de la période considérée dans le rapport et principaux résultats atteints jusqu’à présent

The project contributed to the publication of 11 peer-reviewed scientific publications on the topic of climate change and health, in particular on temperature-related excess mortality in Germany and other countries. Exploitation and dissemination activities included the participation in scientific conferences and stakeholder meetings, visits to local schools, lecturing for general audiences, social media posts, and frequent interaction with the media regarding climate change and health (12 interviews for television, radio, and print media). The project was particularly successful in communication the health risk from anthropogenic climate change to doctors and other medical staff, with overview articles placed in medical journals, and numerous lectures given at large medical conferences.

More results can be accessed via the personal website of the project beneficiary: http://veronikahuber.de/

Progrès au-delà de l’état des connaissances et impact potentiel prévu (y compris l’impact socio-économique et les conséquences sociétales plus larges du projet jusqu’à présent)

Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers is still a major challenge in studies attempting to identify the fingerprint of human-caused climate change on social systems. The project achieved major advances in this regard by showing the relative contributions of general improvements in population health versus increases in temperatures to observed trends in heat-related excess mortality in Germany. These results are key for prioritizing adaptation measures aimed at mitigating the effect of increasingly frequent and intense heat waves on population health. Overall, the project provides evidence on the enormous health risks from climate change, and on the disease and death burden that could be avoided if ambitious greenhouse gas emission reductions were enacted.

Attributing human heat stress to climate change